Aintree Festival Service 2023 DAY TWO
Welcome to the bettrends Aintree Festival Service - our in-depth analysis of every single race at the famous Grand National meeting using tried and tested big race trends.
1:45 Aintree – The Air Charter Service Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1)
Experience over fences has proved an important factor here over this staying trip with all but four of the last 22 winners having previously won at least twice over fences. In addition, no fewer than 20 of the past 22 winners of the Mildmay had run at least four times over fences, so experience is a clear positive here. There are just two in the field with at least four starts over fences, and they are Gerri Colombe and Galia Des Liteaux. They both also have at least two wins over the larger obstacles on their record, with Complete Unknown the only other horse in the line-up to hit this trend too.
The past six winners had all recorded at least one win in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company over fences earlier in the season. The past eight renewals of this contest have been run as Grade 1s, since handed that status in 2014, so it is no surprise that the race appears to be getting stronger in terms of class. There are two horses in here that fit this bill and seemingly have the class edge; Gerri Colombe has landed a brace of Grade 1s with the Faugheen Novice Chase as well as the Scilly Isles whilst Galia Des Liteaux was a runaway winner of the Grade 2 Hampton at Warwick.
Although it is easy to get drawn into picking a horse who missed the Cheltenham Festival and is coming here fresh, the stats suggest that it is best to focus our attentions on those who went to Prestbury Park for this contest. Only two of the past 17 winners had skipped the Cheltenham Festival and in fact, the past nine winners all finished first or second at the Cheltenham Festival. There is just one in the field here who filled the top two spots, and that is Gerri Colombe, who couldn’t quite catch The Real Whacker close home in the Brown Advisory. Of the others who ran at Cheltenham, Bronn and Galia Des Liteaux finished third and fifth in that race respectively and will be looking to reverse the form.
Another key race in recent years has been the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, run at Kempton on Boxing Day. Between 2012 and 2017, five of the six winners contested that race (with one completing the double) whilst last year Ahoy Senor reversed the form with Bravemansgame to make it six winners in the past ten years to have contested that Grade 1. Galia Des Liteaux is the only horse from that race to reappear here, and she was pulled up on the day after a couple of early blunders ended her race prematurely.
The trends will tell you that proven stamina would appear to be an obvious positive, with 26 of the past 32 winners having already won over three miles. Just two in the field check this box, Galia Des Liteaux, for her win in the Grade 2 Hampton, and Thomas Darby, who landed an Ayr Novices’ Handicap over three miles on his last start. However, from the six that hadn’t won over the extended trip, three of those were from 2018 and 2021, so perhaps this is a changing trend. Of course, proven stamina is no negative in a race like this, but perhaps it could be less of a concern for those who have yet to race over this far, and a horse will always need a touch of pace around Aintree.
Looking solely at age, only three winners were over the age of eight and of the past 13 winners, 11 were aged either six or seven. That would appear to be the optimum age group to focus on here, and the ten-year-old Thomas Darby looks up against it on these trends. In terms of breeding, the last British-bred winner of the race was back in 2002, with the 19 winners since all being Irish-bred (12) or French-bred (7). All those in the line-up here fit this trend, with Gerri Colombe and Galia Des Liteaux bred in France whilst the rest of the field were bred in Ireland.
Shortlist
Galia Des Liteaux
Gerri Colombe
After outlining the above nine trends, Galia Des Liteaux leads the way, just missing out on all nine on the account of her fifth in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival. She was well beaten that day, and does have to make up a fair few lengths with both Bronn and Gerri Colombe. However, if we go back to her dominant victory in the Hampton Novices’ Chase back in February, she could put herself in the mix here. She had the reopposing Complete Unknown well back in second, 13 lengths behind, and he has since bolstered that form when bolting up at Kempton. She led on that occasion, and the Mildmay course is one that suits frontrunners over fences, and she may well have her own way out in front here. She is one that would need the sky to open though before the first race on Friday to be in with a proper chance. The other horse on our shortlist is Gerri Colombe, just behind on seven ticked boxes. Prior to the Cheltenham Festival, Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old was unbeaten under rules in seven starts and had landed a pair of Grade 1s over fences on route to Prestbury Park. He was just touched off by a short head in the Brown Advisory as he couldn’t reel in The Real Whacker, and perhaps if the line was ten yards further he would have come away the winner. He is the highest rated in the line-up and this classy sort definitely looks the one to beat, especially if the rain arrives on Merseyside.
2:20 Aintree – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Novices have a very good record in this handicap. It could be that these horses haven’t yet fully shown their ability to the handicapper, and they could therefore be better than their current mark suggests as they continue to improve. Novices have landed the prize in nine of the past 20 renewals, so it is pretty surprising that just two novices take their chance in the contest this year, in the form of Buddy One and Fennor Cross.
Following on from this then, it is no surprise that lightly raced horses have the best record in the contest for similar reasons. Six of the past nine winners had run no more than nine times over hurdles, owing to the point that winners of this handicap hurdle are normally unexposed types. Although it is still important they have showed good form in their runs, and ten of the past 11 winners had notched up at least two wins over hurdles, proving they had the ability to get their head in front. Buddy One is the only horse to line up here who hasn’t won at least two hurdles, with just the one victory to his name.
Despite the need for an unexposed type, the stats suggest that we should be wary of any horse who has had a light campaign. Recent winners have tended to have been fairly busy through the season, with eight of the past 11 winners having had at least three runs that season. There is no horse in the field here who falls down on this trend though. Following on from this, race fitness is evidently a key point and seven of the past eleven winners had run in the 34 days prior. Only Dargiannini, Martello Sky, Sonigino and Tritonic have a longer break to overcome. Many of those who had run in this time prior had actually ran at the Cheltenham Festival, five of the last 11, and both the Martin Pipe and Coral Cup are the best guide, as they are run over intermediate trip.
Eight of the past eleven winners had won over the intermediate trip, between 2m3f and 2m5f, and had proven they can win at the distance. This acts as a negative for the likes of Fennor Cross and Playful Saint who step up in trip for the first time here. A previous run at Aintree has also proved an advantage with five of the past 11 winners having at least one start at the Liverpool course. This bodes well for course winner West To The Bridge as well as Dargiannini, Benson and Camprond who have all placed at Aintree.
In terms of current form, ten of the past eleven winners had placed on one of their last two starts, with three of those winning their last start. This means the likes of Off Your Rocco, Nell’s Son and Jason The Militant have it all to prove as they attempt to bounce back at Aintree.
In terms of age, eight of the past 11 winners were aged between five and eight, so this seems the optimum age to focus on; five of these were aged six so six-year-olds have been the most successful group in recent years. There are three in the field who do not fit into this bracket, the nine-year-olds Jason The Militant and Molly Ollys Wishes as well as ten-year-old West To The Bridge.
17 of the past 20 winners carried 11st2lbs or less, but there are just seven in this field who carry less, and the field is very compressed in terms of weights and ratings. Furthermore, all three of those winners who carried more came in the last decade, so perhaps this is a trend worth keeping an eye on in the coming years.
Finally, it is the Irish-bred horses who have the best record in this contest, landing seven of the last ten renewals and all of the last three. Exactly half of the field this year are Irish bred.
Shortlist
Captain Conby
Buddy One
Pull Again Green
Fennor Cross
We have one outright leader on the trends, ten out of 12, and that is the Irish raider Captain Conby, for trainer Eamon Sheehy. He was running a nice race here 12 months ago in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, contesting a third or fourth-placed finish before falling two out. He has since been switched to handicaps this term, and although not yet winning, has ran some solid races in defeat. He had finished third to subsequent Grade 3 winner Shewearsitwell before a second to the progressive San Salvador. He ran a stormer in the Coral Cup on his last start, he travelled strongly through the contest and was well in contention approaching the last but just petered out to finish sixth. He runs off a one pound lower mark here, and a speedier, flatter track like Aintree will aid his finishing effort. He looks the right type to land one of these big handicaps. We then have three horses just behind, on nine ticks, that gain a place on our shortlist. The first of those is Buddy One, who ran a great race in the Martin Pipe to finish third. He led going to two out, but didn’t run the straightest up to the line and perhaps lost some of that momentum as he was swallowed up by Iroko and the reappearing No Ordinary Joe up the run in. He races off a four pound higher mark here, but has a handy seven pound claimer to take some weight off. He is still in his novice season and has progressed with every run, so he is one who is trending in the right direction. Fennor Cross also takes his place on the shortlist, and he took his chance in the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival. He did find that far too hot, but this is calmer waters, and he landed a Grade 2 at Cheltenham back in November, so he clearly has ability. He has still only had just four starts over hurdles, and steps up in trip for the first time on handicap debut so there is still improvement to be expected from John McConnell’s six-year-old. Last but not least, we have Pull Again Green, who is the only horse on the shortlist who skipped the Cheltenham Festival. A three-time novice hurdle winner last term, he didn’t take to fences this term and was reverted back to hurdles when he finished mid-division at Kempton last time. He will benefit for that run, and could be in the mix if rediscovering some of his novice form.
2:55 Aintree – The Poundland Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
The most obvious place to start when assessing the Top Novices’ Hurdle contenders is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle from the Cheltenham Festival. With 13 of the past 23 winners ran in this race at Cheltenham; a further eight of them finished second or third. However, any of the horses finishing in these positions aren’t running but Inthepocket did finish fourth by a neck. Others who ran in this include Tahmuras, Strong Leader and Rare Edition, who was pulled up.
Nicky Henderson trained last year’s winner Jonbon which makes his tally six of the last 12 winners. This is a positive for his only runner this year Luccia. However, a negative is being Irish trained as they are only 2-30 this century, raising questions about favourite Found A Fifty, Inthepocket and No Looking Back.
Ex-Flat horses have historically had a good record in this race with 12 successful since 1993 but none in the past 11 years. This highlights Rubaud, who before joining Paul Nicholls yard ran in France on the flat, even winning at Saint-Cloud.
More recently, horses who contested National Hunt Flat Races (Bumpers) have done well with the past ten winners having ran in these. This highlights many of the field. Therefore, those who haven’t run in these including Colonel Harry, the well-fancied Inthepocket, Matata and Rubaud are in danger in terms of this trend.
The whole field of 15 runners in this year’s race are in the correct age backet of being five or six-years-old.
Something else to be considered is 19 of the past 25 winners were sent off at single figures, this shows favour to Found A Fifty, Inthepocket, Luccia and Altobelli.
Shortlist
Luccia
Inthepocket
Found A Fifty
Tahmuras
Luccia comes out on top of the trends with four in her trends in favour. As Nicky Henderson’s only entry, she looks to hold great potential here especially considering her age and form in bumpers. Closely behind her is Inthepocket, Found A Fifty and Tahmuras with three trends in their favour.
All of the field have their age on the right side of trends, with Tahmuras also having ran in bumpers strengthening his profile. However, Tahmuras is an outside in the betting being at 12/1.
Inthepocket and Found A Fifty despite both being favoured in the betting, they are consumed by the negative trend of having Irish trainers Henry De Bromhead and Gordon Elliott in turn. Another significant thing in Inthepocket’s favour is his run in Supreme Novices Hurdle, narrowly missing out on third place.
3:30 Aintree – The Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1)
Seven top horses go to the post for this year’s renewal of this prestigious Grade 1 race. Fakir D’oudairies is sure to be a popular one in the betting as the J P McManus owned gelding looks to win this race for the third year straight. It’s no surprise to see him doing strongly in the trends.
French-bred horses have always done very well in this race, in fact the last five winners of this have been French-bred. This spells bad news for the pair of Millers Bank and Minella Drama, the only two in this race not bred across the Channel. While French breeding seems to be key, Irish training appears to be equally important. 11 of the past 24 winners were trained in Ireland, and this helps narrow down our field a lot. Of the seven running here, only Fakir D’oudairies and French Dynamite are Irish-trained. This pair doing very well in the trends.
Previous form is key in a number of different areas. Those who have found previous success at this festival have historically done well. This bodes well for Fakir D’oudairies, Hitman, Millers Bank and Minella Drama. While providing a knock against French Dynamite, Fugitif and Pic D’Orhy. French Dynamite however does hit another trend related to form, having previously run in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. Only one rival here can match that, Hitman. Being a second season chaser is always a plus, bad news for Fakir D’oudairies, Hitman and Pic D’Orhy.
Shortlist
French Dynamite
Fakir D’oudairies
Hitman
The eight-year-old French Dynamite tops our list, hitting four of the five key trends that we looked at. Only missing out on the full set as he has no prior success at this festival. He hasn’t been favoured too much in the market, admittedly with good reason. He is likely to find some of his rivals here too much for him. He could well be a sneaky good each way option however, at quite a big price.
Fakir D’oudairies comes in joint second in behind. Having won the past 2 renewals of this race, it would come as no surprise to see him do well again. He hasn’t been the most convincing since winning this last year, his only win came in a rather tame Grade 2 at Thurles in January. He was last seen when no match for Shishkin when coming in third in the Betfair Ascot Chase in February.
Rounding out our shortlist in joint second is Hitman. The Paul Nicholls trained gelding has been tipped by a number of people for this one and if managing to pull everything together could be in with a good shout. It’s a surprise however to see the market leader at the time of writing, Pic D’Orhy finish rock bottom of the trends, only hitting one of the covered trends, French breeding. His red-hot form of late is just too hard to ignore however making him tough to look past.
4:05 Aintree – The Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Run over the National Fences, this is a tough race to solve as it always attracts a lot of runners. A maximum field of 30 take their place and it looks to arguably be one of the most competitive handicaps of the three days. As it is run over the Grand National fences, as they are such a unique test, any horses who have prior experience over the fences can have an advantage. 12 of the past 18 winners had run over these style of fences at Aintree before, and eight of the past 15 winners had run in the contest the previous year. Three take their chance who ran here last year, the second Batcio, Battleoverdoyen who finished midfield and Fantastic Lady who shipped her rider at the first fence. We also have horses here who have tasted success over these fences this season, with Becher Chase winner Ashtown Lad and Grand Sefton winner Al Dancer; Gesskille finished second on both occasions and will be bidding to go one better here.
A recent run has proved to be a positive here in the Topham, with 18 of the past 19 winners having had a run in the previous 34 days. This acts as a negative to the likes of Gesskille, Al Dancer and Fantastic Lady who all must overcome 100+ day breaks. Following on from this, this race tends to go to horses that have been kept busy throughout the season and ten of the past 11 winners had at least four runs under their belt that season.
Perhaps surprisingly, winning their last race has not been a positive pointer towards success in the Topham and just two of the past 19 winners had backed up a win here. There are just three last time out winners in the field here, who are Al Dancer, Equus Dancer and Bill Baxter. What has been significant in their last run though, is that it was a Class 1 race, so although they were beaten it was in a high quality contest. Seven of the past nine winners ran in a Class 1 last time out, and eleven in the field do not fit this trend. The Cheltenham Festival is littered with Class 1 races, and so it is no surprise that five of the last ten winners had run at Prestbury Park on their way to success in the Topham. Eleven horses in this year’s field competed at the Cheltenham Festival; three in the Grand Annual, four in the Plate, two in the Ultima and two in the Cross Country, although that is a Class 2 contest.
Form over the intermediate trip has proved an advantage in the Topham, with ten of the last 11 winners having at least one win over 2m3f-2m5f on their record. Perhaps surprisingly, there are eight in here without this win including many near the head of the market, including Ashtown Lad, Haut En Couleurs and Final Orders. Two career chase wins has proven to be the minimum in the Topham with nine of the past 11 winners hitting this trend. Only Haut En Couleurs and Quel Destin fall down on this, but the former could count himself unlucky not to tick this box as he fell at Thurles in January when looking the most likely winner.
It terms of ratings, must like the Grand National, since the changing of the Aintree fences the race has attracted classier horses to the contest and higher quality horses have begun landing the spoils. Six of the last eight winners have been rated 141 or higher, and each horse from Fantastic Lady and upwards fits into this category.
Those aged ten and younger have the best record in the contest, with this age group taking home 17 of the past 19 renewals. This acts as a negative for the four eleven-year-olds in the field; Batcio, Celebre D’Allen, Hardline and Top Ville Ben.
Finally, there are four trainers to note who have the best records here in the Topham. The most prolific of those are Peter Bowen, who had Mac Tottie last year, and Nicky Henderson, who have trained five and four winners respectively in the past 19 renewals. They both have just one in the field, with Bowen sending Equus Dancer and Henderson having Fantastic Lady. Willie Mullins also has a fantastic record in the contest, winning two of the last three, and he is mob-handed here with four runners in the line-up. The Tizzards won back-to-back renewals with Ultragold in 2017 and 2018 so clearly know how to train a winner, so Killer Kane must merit respect.
Shortlist
Battleoverdoyen
Il Ridoto
Fantastic Lady
Battleoverdoyen leads the way on the trends, and is only let down by the fact he is trained by Gordon Elliott, who searches for his first victory in the contest. He ran in the race last year, which is a bonus, but finished midfield after never really being put into the race. His form on paper may leave a little bit to be desired as he is winless in almost two years, but he has run some good races in defeat. He finished fifth in the Galway Plate last summer behind Hewick off a mark of 149, is now rated 138, and finished third in a Grade 3 on his penultimate start, just four lengths off the winner. He also has plenty of back class on his page, a Grade 1 winning novice chaser and an open Grade 2 chase winner, so he clearly has the ability. Down to a mark of 138, with a three pound claimer, he looks a massive price for what he has done in the past. We then have two horses tied for second on the trends who also enter our shortlist. The first of those is Il Ridoto for Paul Nicholls, who has had an excellent season in handicaps this year. After placing in both the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the New Year’s Day Handicap he finally got off the mark for the season when getting the better of Fugitif back at Cheltenham in January. He ran a decent race in sixth in the Plate and he is one of the more consistent types in this field, always seeming to run his race and hit the frame in big, valuable handicaps. It is a question mark whether he will take to the fences on his first attempt here, but he is likely to give a good account of himself. We also have Fantastic Lady for Nicky Henderson, who was unlucky to ship her rider at the first fence last year when jumping in a bunch. Although never a great guide, she did seem to really enjoy herself over the national fences when loose. A solid novice chaser last term, she finished third in the Grade 2 Pendil behind Pic D’Orhy and Millers Bank. She bounced back from her unseat her last term when landing a Listed Mares’ Chase on reappearance by over four lengths from Zambella, herself winning a Listed contest since and finishing fourth in the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham. She will have to bounce back from her below par effort in the New Year’s Day Handicap here, she has been dropped a pound for that effort and has been given a few months to freshen up though.
4:40 Aintree – The Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)
The past two winners of this race avoided the Cheltenham Festival and in all, 13 of the past 22 winners had not run at Cheltenham. Therefore, this is one race in particular in which we must pay utmost respect to the fresh horse. Ten of the 16-strong field all skipped Cheltenham. Of those past winners who had run at the Festival in the last 22 years, several of those had contested the Albert Bartlett and this appears to be the best pointer from the Festival with six of the past 16 winners contesting the three mile contest. This is good news for Stay Away Fay, Search For Glory and Weveallbeencaught.
The past ten winners ran in either a Point-to-Point or bumper at the beginning of their career and no fewer than nine of those were successful in one of the two disciplines. Four of the past six winners came from the Point-to-Point ranks and winning form in the division should be viewed positively. Those that hail from a traditional National Hunt background therefore seem to have the advantage here, which acts as a negative for the likes of Iroko and Moka De Vassy.
As a three mile Grade 1 novices’ hurdle, much like the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival, experience and know-how are often extremely important here. 18 of the past 22 winners this century had won at least twice over hurdles, with eight of those even winning four times or more. There are just five in the field who have yet to notch up two victories over hurdles; Absolute Notions, Moka De Vassy, Search For Glory, Saint Davy and Weveallbeencaught.
Whilst this race can be a real test for young hurdlers, it is perhaps unusual that only one of the past eight winners had already won over the extended trip and the past three winners all had run over 2m4f-2m5f on their previous start. Therefore, don’t be so quick to dismiss those stepping up in trip here.
In terms of age, Saint Are in 2011 is the last five-year-old to win the Sefton and the only winner from that age group in the past 17 renewals. It really is a tough ask for a horse so young and their record is now 0-22 in the past ten renewals. This does not bode well for five-year-olds Absolute Notions, Iroko and Moka De Vassy. Overall, all bar seven of the 34 winners were aged six or seven and with 16 of the past 17 winners falling into this age bracket, it clearly seems the age to focus on. This is also a negative for the sole eight-year-old in the field, Twig, who will look to become the first horse older than seven to land the spoils since 1998.
Irish-trained runners do not have a stellar record in the Sefton, and despite being sent off favourite last year the sole Irish runner, Banbridge, could not improve their record. The record of Irish-trained horses is now 0-24 for the past 16 renewals and we have seen just three Irish-trained winners in all. There are just two Irish raiders in the field, Absolute Notions and Search For Glory, both for Gordon Elliott. Interestingly, all three Irish-trained winners had avoided the Cheltenham Festival so that is certainly something to keep in mind, with Absolute Notions skipping Prestbury Park.
Shortlist
Grey Dawning
Maximilian
Apple Away
We have three on the shortlist, who all let down on just one of the trends here for the Sefton. The first of those is Grey Dawning for the Skelton team, who has been kept fresh for this as his long term aim by one of the best target trainers in the game. After landing two bumpers impressively last term, he was sent off favourite on hurdles debut here at Aintree but was slightly immature and novicey and could only finish second. He has since left that form well behind though, with a novice hurdle win followed by a nice handicap success on Boxing Day. His last start was his best though, bolting up impressively by five lengths in the Grade 2 Leamington and looking a smart prospect. He steps up in trip here, but it has always looked as though it will suit and could bring out even further improvement in this progressive type. Next up is Maximilian, who has won three of his four starts over hurdles culminating in a Grade 2 success in the River Don last time. He got the better of Albert Bartlett winner, and current favourite for this race, Stay Away Fay, so the form is red-hot and perhaps there shouldn’t be such disparity in their price. Finally we have the sole mare in the field, Apple Away for Lucinda Russell, who won this with Ahoy Senor at a huge price in 2021. She has continued to progress since stepping up to three miles and has won her last two starts in convincing fashion. She beat Jet Legs at Ayr, has since won his next two starts, before landing a Listed Mares’ contest at Doncaster. She likes to get on with things this mare, and if they give her too much rope on the front end she could well be tough to catch and prove dangerous.
5:15 Aintree – The Abersoch Land and Sea Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders)
In terms of trends, this race is probably the one with the most inconsistent base, with four-year-olds carrying 9st 9lb and seven-year-olds carrying 11st 12lb both on the winning list in the past ten years. However, if we dig deep enough, we still get a decent picture of the type of horse required to win this.
Firstly, horses aged four to seven have won this on eight of the last nine occasions, so the likes of Glan, Advanced Virgo, Nibiru and A Different Kind might be too exposed for a race like this.
Speaking of exposure, only three winners in the last decade have won carrying more than 11st 2lb, so the percentages say that a horse down the bottom half of the weights is usually the way to go here, bad news for top-weight Homme Public despite his jockey’s 5lb claim. He’s 4lb clear of the next in the weights, Glan, who now has two negatives next to his name.
Sticking with claiming jockeys, this has been won five times in the last nine years by jockeys who can take some weight off the back of their horse – even though this seems an obvious benefit in a conditional and amateur jockeys’ contest, it does suggest that those better jockeys with proven records actually struggle to give the extra weight to their less experienced colleagues in this as a whole. Luca Morgan (Densworth) and Theo Gillard (Fruit N Nut) are two high profile jockeys in this not claiming off their backs.
From much smaller representation than their British-trained colleagues, the Irish have done very well in this recently – three winners in the last nine have hailed from the Emerald Isle and given that they’re often outnumbered in this race, that’s a big pointer for Irish-trained horses targeted at this, such as Advanced Virgo and Gaoth Chuil, who are two of the five horses competing in this year’s race.
Ratings-wise, horses rated 130-141 have been the most successful, despite plenty of different weights having been carried to victory – perhaps a little counterintuitively this year, Geromino and JPR One are two interesting ones to note from this category.
Shortlist
Parramount
Geromino
Advanced Virgo
Tullypole Annie
Quite a few top the shortlist in this year renewal, with the first of these being Parramount for Charlie Longsdon and 7lb claimer Bradley Roberts. He finds himself near the top of the weights and you do have to go back to 2014 to find the last horse to carry more than 11st 3lb.
Favourites don’t have a great record and Geromino is a nice double figure price. The last horse to not win at a double figure price was Chief Justice back in 2018 and the only favourite to win was Cockney Sparrow in 2013. Advanced Virgo is the first of two to hail from Ireland that have made the shortlist. The Irish do have a good record in the race, so to discount their runners wouldn’t be the wisest of moves. Tullypole Annie is the second Irish runner and at only five is on the younger end of the spectrum. Five-year-olds have taken the last two renewals and carrying only 11st 3lb, Tullypole Annie would have an excellent chance.