Friday 5th April 2024
This past weekend, we celebrated the first winner from our Horses To Follow, however if we are being completely honest, it wasn’t cause for much celebration at the prices. Paddy Twomey’s Goffs Million winner One Look returned to the track for just her second career start, and won as expected at Cork at skinny odds of just 1/20! We didn’t learn much from the performance, with the second horse rated just 73, except the fact that she is fit and well as she embarks on a Classic campaign. Perhaps slightly more workmanlike than some may have wanted, it was a satisfactory return on heavy ground and simply served a purpose; this should set her up nicely for a crack at the Guineas in May. She is a general 14/1 for the Newmarket Classic and must have serious claims.
Elsewhere at the weekend, Greatgadian was disappointing when well beaten at Newcastle on the All-Weather but ran far too freely and that effort can be excused going forward. Unfortunately, the handicapper hasn’t relented for that effort and has left him on the same mark, but it will be interesting to see how he fares when switched back to the turf. The Close Brothers Handicap at Newmarket over a mile at the Craven Meeting could be the next port of call, a race he finished seventh in last year. He was consistently denied a clear run that day and is now rated 6lbs lower, so would be an interesting contender if turning up at Flat HQ.
Unfortunately, we lost Musselburgh to the inclement weather and therefore American Affair could not take up his engagement on Saturday, a race he went into with a massive chance. We did have a runner at Pontefract on Tuesday, where Elegant Erin finished fourth under Cam Hardie. She was slowly away on this occasion and took too long to warm to the task but still showed enough to suggest that a win is not too far away. She has won two of her three starts at Beverley and there is a race there, the Beverly Beaker Handicap on the 17th April, that could be the perfect race for her next.
Over at Meydan, Forever Young continued his charge towards the Kentucky Derby with an impressive performance in the UAE Derby on ‘Super Saturday’. He didn’t get everything his own way though – he was drawn wide and had to use up a lot of petrol to get into a decent position in the first few furlongs. He challenged wide and plugged on very well, handling both the surface and step up in class superbly. He’ll need to break better in the ‘Run for the Roses’ but the two turns suited him well and he’s well worth his place in Kentucky – stamina should play to his strengths. He’s halved in price from 16-1 to a general 8s since the book was published.
Auguste Rodin was, once again, incredibly disappointing in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Despite Point Lonsdale acting as a pacemaker on the front end, the Deep Impact colt was dropped right out by Ryan Moore and found nothing when asked to quicken up. This is not out of the ordinary for the enigmatic four-year-old, who blew out twice last year, and he really can be hit-and-miss; whether it is a physical or mental issue is a real puzzle. Ballydoyle did celebrate a fantastic winner in the Dubai Gold Cup though as Tower Of London, mentioned in our Top Class Performers section, displayed an electric turn of foot as he powered to a mightily impressive two-length success. The Galileo colt is really developing into a burgeoning young stayer and is now a general 10/1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. However, a word of caution, Aidan O’Brien did namecheck the Hardwicke Stakes as a potential target, and he is certainly not short of speed either.
Looking ahead then, and we have two exciting entries from our three-year-olds this coming weekend. On Saturday, Ralph Beckett’s impressive Nottingham debut winner, Valvano, makes his seasonal return in the one-mile Conditions Stakes at Kempton. A winner over half-a-furlong further in heavy ground on debut last term, he should be seen to better effect when stepped up in trip but he showed an impressive finishing kick at Nottingham last year and should still have the natural speed for this sort of contest. He has been handed an entry in the Dante Stakes in May, and hopefully can show enough here to earn his spot in the race that is often used as a Derby trial. Notable Speech is likely to be popular for the Godolphin operation, a winner of both of his starts over course and distance, including the "European Road To The Kentucky Derby" Conditions Stakes last time. The Dubawi colt is more than a worthy adversary, and we will certainly learn a lot about Valvano here. This is a contest that has been won in recent years by some real smart types too, with the likes of Mostahdaf and Maljoom on the roll of honour.
On Sunday at Leopardstown, all five have stood their ground at declaration stage for the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, including Paddy Twomey’s Deepone. On account of his impressive Group 2 victory at the Curragh to close the last campaign, the Study Of Man colt does have to carry a 5lb penalty here and it is unlikely he will have it all his own way on the front end as he did that day, with the Ballydoyle battalion firing three at the race. He is the highest rated in the field at 111, but Coolmore colt Illinois is only 2lbs inferior and the Group 1-placed contender does receive that handy 5lbs. The step up in trip does look sure to suit Deepone though and he shapes as one who improve into his three-year-old season.