Tuesday 16th April 2024
With the Grand National in the rear-view mirror and now just two weeks left until the Jumps Finale at Sandown, the focus begins to completely shift to the Flat and this week’s calendar sums that up perfectly. Whilst the Scottish Grand National, and the arrival of a Mullins battalion in search of the Trainers’ Championship, takes the headlines in the National Hunt world, this week is jam-packed full of top-class action on the level.
The Craven Meeting kicks us off in Newmarket throughout the week with plenty of exciting young stars hitting the track, whilst we have two key trials at Newbury on Saturday in the Fred Darling and Greenham Stakes.
In terms of our Horses To Follow, we have no runners on Tuesday at HQ but we do have Embesto set to run in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes on Wednesday. A Group 3 staged over 1m1f on the Rowley Mile course, Charlie Appleby has landed the race in both of the last two years, including with Master Of The Seas (who has won three Group 1’s since). Appleby is represented by 2023 winner Ottoman Fleet, who bids to retain his crown. The globe-trotting five-year-old has been in consistent form since that victory, the winner of a Belmont Grade 2 next time and runner-up in the valuable Jebel Hatta on his penultimate start but must bounce back from a rare below-par effort in the Singspiel Stakes at Meydan last time. The gelding has a terrific record here on the Rowley Mile course though, with three wins and a second from just four starts here.
Our Horse To Follow Embesto will be having his first start at the track, but did run well when second to Nostrum in the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes on the July course. He dead heated with Mighty Ulysses in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes on his next start and had the reopposing Regal Reality in behind him that day. He raced too keenly on the front end at Longchamp on his final start of the campaign, but still acquitted himself well to finish fourth, and looks the type to step forward again this term. After missing his juvenile campaign, he is still lightly raced with just the five career starts and is an exciting prospect stepping up slightly in trip here.
Karl Burke’s Royal Rhyme was featured in our top-class performers section as one who could take the step up to the top table this season. He graduated through the handicap ranks as a three-year-old last term and bolted up by a comfortable six-and-a-half lengths from a mark of 95 at Goodwood in real smart style. Stepped up to stakes company, he landed the odds in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr before pulling away his chance on his first start in Group 1 company when too keen in the Champion Stakes. He still ran well to be beaten just over five lengths in fifth, and he is the one they all have to beat here if ready to go on the back of a break.
Elsewhere on Wednesday, we had picked out the Weatherbys Global Stallions App Handicap as a potential early season target for Leap Abroad but he was unfortunately balloted out of that race. He instead took his chance at Windsor on Monday but drifted right across the track and couldn’t keep a straight line, weakening into fourth after travelling well on the front end. He has a fine record on the Rowley Mile and the Howden Handicap on Guineas weekend (in which he was fourth last year) would be the perfect next target, but it may be a sweat once again to get into the race.
Moving onto Thursday, and Mill Stream makes his seasonal debut in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes under David Egan. Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Gleneagles colt was consistent in handicaps from marks in the high 90s last term and improved to land both Listed and Group 3 honours at Deauville in August; the second of those he had 2023 Abernant Stakes winner Garrus back in second. He acquitted himself well with respectable mid-division finishes in Group 1 company to end the campaign and this type of Group 3 contest looks the perfect level for him to strike again. He has undergone wind surgery over the winter.
Again, we have rivals from our top-class performers taking their chance here and they are headed by market leader Shouldvebeenaring. The four-year-old returned with a staying-on third in Listed company on seasonal reappearance and should come on greatly for the run here. A winner of a Listed race at this track last May, the Rowley Mile course suits and he must take high rank on account of his brace of Group 1-placed efforts last term. Karl Burke’s Spycatcher lines up for his seasonal reappearance but may just find this 6f trip too sharp on return on a quick surface and will be of more interest when encountering easier ground.
Later on the card, Meydaan has been declared for the 1m2f Novice Stakes that has played host to some smart horses in the past couple of years. Godolphin’s New London landed the spoils in 2022 before going on to Group 3 success and recording a second in the St Leger, whilst last year Liberty Lane (now rated 101) chased home Royal Ascot winner Waipiro. Charlie Appleby has, unsurprisingly here at Newmarket, won four of the last six renewals of this contest and again holds a strong hand. Endless Victory is the mount of William Buick and is a full brother to Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter. Whilst he looked very green on debut at Wolverhampton, he picked up smartly in the final furlong as he powered to an almost five length success. Whilst there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree, he showed an electric turn of foot that day. His main market rivals did disappoint though, and the runner-up was smashed next time out, so it will be interesting to see how the form holds up. As we discussed in our Horses To Follow, Meydaan created a smart impression on debut when pulling clear under hands-and-heels off a steady gallop to win a Newcastle maiden and he should have plenty of scope for improvement this season. That contest did turn into a dash, and he showed a smart turn of pace, but he would be better suited by a stronger gallop here.
Whilst we don’t yet have declarations for Saturday, it could be an extremely bust day at Newbury for our Horses To Follow if the entries do hold up. Chesspiece has Harry Davies booked and looks a likely runner in the opening Group 3 contest, the John Porter Stakes. A winner from a mark of 96 at York and denied by just a neck in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes over this trip as a three-year-old last term, he can bowl out from the front and make use of his stamina here on ground currently listed as soft. Both Arrest (second in the Leger) and Hamish (winner of all four starts last term) will also appreciate the current going description too though, and it could turn out to be a stern stamina test with the entries full of stayers.
Regal Jubilee was entered in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket, but the Gosden team have instead decided to opt for the Fred Darling at Newbury on Saturday. An impressive winner of her final two starts over a mile last term, the form of her Listed success has had mixed results so far this season. The second and third have both been beaten in France upon return, whilst the fourth (Beautiful Love) scooted to a six-length success in Meydan when last seen. Whilst she is currently trading as favourite for the contest with Kieran Shoemark booked to ride, the drop back in trip would be a slight concern as she does shape as more of an Oaks filly. It is worth remembering that the yard’s Soul Sister was a well-beaten last in this contest last year before landing the Musidora Stakes and the Oaks. In the ‘boys’ version, we have James Doyle jocked up on Mister Sketch for his new job riding for Wathnan Racing. He is a fine, strapping individual with plenty of raw ability and he looks one who will improve stacks over the winter into this three-year-old campaign, still with plenty of scope for improvement after just the three starts. He has raced exclusively at 6f so far in his career, and this step up in trip should bring about further progress if he can learn to settle a little better.
We also have two handicap entries over the weekend, with Richard Hannon’s Tacarib Bay entered for the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile. He was disappointing stepped back up to the extended mile on the back of a break last time in the Lincoln Trial, but he has now dropped down to a tempting mark of 103. The last time he won a handicap was back in 2022 (although he did win a Listed race last November) and that was from this exact mark. A handicapper with a touch of class, he also ran well from this mark when sixth in the International Stakes at Ascot last year and could be a big each-way price on Saturday. As those of you who read this blog a couple of weeks ago know, we were pretty sweet on the chances of American Affair at a Musselburgh fixture that was lost to the weather, however we may get the chance for redemption on Sunday. Jim Goldie’s four-year-old has been declared in the opening handicap in Scotland on Sunday over 5f and does look well-handicapped from a mark of 70.