VIP Flat Tipping 2024 - Saturday 27th July
Hello and welcome back to the bettrends VIP Flat Service for the 2024 season, it is a real pleasure to have you along and hopefully we can point you in the right way of some winners to celebrate along the way.
As we build up to Glorious Goodwood next week, we first have a fine Saturday schedule to tackle this week with good action across the cards. Ascot’s King George meeting takes centre stage as we have a Handicap Breakers race in the form of the International Stakes whilst we also have selections from York and Chester.
1:50 Ascot – The Sodexo Live! Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (JB2)
Whilst none of the last five winners had contested a Royal Ascot contest earlier in the season, four of the previous five winners before that had finished in the top five at the Royal Meeting. Although still a maiden, the form of SIMMERING’s Albany Stakes second clearly sets the standard here and it really shouldn’t be long before she sets foot in the winners’ enclosure. Ollie Sangster’s Too Darn Hot filly caught the eye with how she travelled at York on debut when third to a subsequent Group 2 winner (the second and fourth both winning since too) and she again travelled strongly at Royal Ascot. Dropped out by Jamie Spencer, she made stylish headway through the field and ran on to take second close home but was just beaten by what looks to be an extremely smart prospect in Fairy Godmother. The third and fourth that day have since filled the second and third spots in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, whilst the fifth also placed in Group 2 company next time, so the form holds up. Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle, and she could be a class above here.
The Newmarket July Course is often a breeding ground for top-level two-year-olds, and seven of the past ten winners of this race had contested a race at the track on their previous start. Five of those seven had filled one of the top three positions in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at the July Festival but interestingly, we have just one representative from that contest set to line up here. That is Ralph Beckett’s Tales Of The Heart, who finished sixth in the race when last seen. Racing up with the pace had paid dividends throughout the week and it transpired the same in that race, so the hold-up tactics employed did not work to good effect as she could never get involved from the rear. The Mehmas filly was previously ahead of the winner when runner-up in the Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes though and a repeat of that effort would put her bang there. She is a full sister to Flying Childers winner Caturra and is perhaps the one at a bigger price that is being overlooked in the market if bouncing back.
The other two winners who raced at Newmarket last time out were successful in maiden company and Mandurah is the filly in here with that profile. Simon and Ed Crisford’s daughter of Kingman skipped clear in impressive fashion last month and looked a Group-class filly no doubt, firmly in control and well on top at the line. The bare form has taken a fair few knocks since but it was hard not to be impressed by the visual performance on the day. Just two of the past 12 winners of the contest were successful on the back of only the one start though. Handcuffed and Definitive must also overcome this trend on just their second start, but both were mighty impressive when winning on debut. Slight preference would be for the former, a half-sister to Chesham and July Stakes winner Tactical for the same yard, who overcame greenness to win comfortably under just hands and heels. Clive Cox’s Definitive is out of an unraced half-sister to Group 1 winner Lightning Spear and overcame a slow start and troubled passage to win at Haydock on debut. The form leaves a bit to be desired, but she won with a fair bit in hand that day and should go on improving.
Aviation Time was on the right part of the track and ran a cracker to finish third in the Windsor Castle Stakes, although the form does appear surprisingly below-par for the Royal Ascot contest. The soft ground didn’t appear to suit out in France last time, but she is respected back on a quicker surface and reverting to six-furlongs (winner over the trip on debut). Betty Clover kept on well to score in Listed company over the minimum trip at York on her penultimate start and wasn’t disgraced when eighth in the Queen Mary Stakes last time. The Time Test filly should get the extra distance on pedigree and stall one has a fine record in the contest, responsible for six of the last 13 winners.
bettrends Advice:
SIMMERING 1pt WIN @ 6/4 (Various)
2:25 Ascot – The Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (JB2)
Three-year-olds have the best record in the Valiant Stakes, landing 11 of the past 19 renewals, and again the younger horses could take some stopping with the weight-for-age allowance. FRIENDLY SOUL was mightily disappointing in the Musidora Stakes as a short-price favourite when last seen and must put that well behind her, but it is hard to forget how impressive she was when landing the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes on return back in May. The winner of a maiden on her sole start last term, the daughter of Kingman is out of a Group 3-winning mare who has produced three other Listed winners and three Group 1 winners, so she has a lovely pedigree. She travelled strongly on the front end at Newmarket on return and asserted well to repel the challenge of the hot favourite, the front pair surging far clear from the rest of the field. The time set matched the visual impression, and the form has worked out well since; runner-up Kalpana third in the Ribblesdale and a wide margin Listed winner since, whilst stablemate Strutting finished second in the Sandringham Stakes last time. It is a risky proposition of course, considering she completely blew out at York last time but a change to hold up tactics didn’t work at all. To the eye she never looked to travel a yard, and this was confirmed by Kieran Shoemark after the race, who said she hung badly. Returning to a right-handed track is a big plus, after she won at Chelmsford as a two-year-old, looking to handle it fine. She is the joint highest rated in the field and the step back in trip is an interesting move but ridden positively, she may just have too much class for them.
Charlie Appleby had a tough Royal Ascot, failing to get on the board, but the powerhouse yard has really started to fire now, operating at a 42% strike rate across the last fortnight. However, it is still worth noting that he is one winner from eight runners at the track in 2024 and has just a 15% strike rate here over the last five years (opposed to 29% overall in the UK). The unbeaten Devoted Queen will likely have plenty of supporters though as she chases the four timer, and the form of her impressive Listed success at York last time has worked out extremely well. Rather keen in her first two starts, the first-time hood worked wonders up in class as she settled much better in midfield and powered home strongly to win by two lengths, well on top at the line. The runner-up Spiritual has since taken Listed honours herself in the Coral Distaff, as has the fourth Bright Thunder. It is a slight worry that she hasn’t been sighted since that run at York back in May, skipping an engagement in the Coronation Stakes, whilst it is also worth mentioning that Appleby has had four horses beaten in this race in the past decade, the last two of those sent off favourite.
The aforementioned Spiritual came out on top in the Coral Distaff, but George Boughey’s Soprano was inconvenienced by the way the race panned out that day. Held up in a race where the winner made all, she conceded first run with a wide challenge to the two in front and was never nearer than at the finish. The softer ground also would not have suited, and she is well worth another go at securing black type, especially as the joint highest rated in the field. The Starspangledbanner filly was previously very impressive in landing the always-competitive Sandringham Stakes from a lofty mark of 100 and clearly goes well here at Ascot, third in the Albany Stakes last year on her only other start at the Berkshire track.
Of the older horses, Sirona was far from disgraced when fifth in the Falmouth Stakes last time, keeping on well despite missing the break by 4 lengths, and will find this assignment easier dropping back in grade. She had placed at this level over seven furlongs on her first two starts of the campaign and the in-form Oisin Murphy hops back in the saddle. She does however look to be a shade short in the betting on which she has achieved prior to that, and I’d want that each-way security before backing her. Doom was a staying-on third in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot but that didn’t appear to be the strongest renewal whilst Naomi Lapaglia was third to that rival in the Prix Ceres last term and has a fair bit of ground to make up. Julia Augusta looks to be up against it on all known form. At Ascot, she was behind Doom in the Duke Of Cambridge and it’s hard to see how she turns that form around here. Joseph O’Brien’s Thornbrook was third in this contest last term, although that was far from a vintage renewal, and improved for her reappearance effort when fourth in a Group 3 at Leopardstown last time. The winner there looks potentially very smart, and she didn’t have too much luck in-running, so an improved effort can be expected back up to the mile here.
bettrends Advice:
FRIENDLY SOUL 1pt WIN @ 5/1 (Coral/Ladbrokes)
3:00 Ascot – The Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (JB2)
Another straight course cavalry charge at the Royal venue and with 18 going to post, it’s certainly another tricky puzzle to solve. However, there certainly are a bunch of solid trends to help us solve it.
Firstly, the age of the last ten winners has been predominantly four or five, with 18 of the last 20 successful horses in this band. The two winners outside of this were both older horses and a three-year-old has not won this since 2003. Some very good three-year-olds, such as subsequent Listed winner Aldaary and Group 3 winner Fanaar, have been beaten in this contest so it is tough to win as a younger horse, although none take their chance here. The oldest winner in that time period is aged seven, and so ten-year-olds Summerghand and Bless Him have a big trend to overcome at their grand age.
In terms of weight, seven of the last nine winners have all carried 9st or more to victory, and those towards the bottom of the weights may not have the class or ability for such a competitive handicap. This year, the bottom seven from Summerghand and below in the racecard carry below this parameter.
In terms of recent form, it’s notable that ten of the last 17 winners of the race had finished in the top five on their last start and arrived here on the back of a good performance. 12 of the 18 in this year’s field fit the criteria here, and two in the field arrive here on the back of a victory; Aalto and Make Me King. It is also notable that all of the last 11 winners had run in a Class 2 Handicap on their latest start, performing at a similar level to this competitive handicap on route. There are just six in the line up here who don’t fit this bill, with Fivethousandtoone finishing fourth in Group 3 company last time whilst Fresh, New Image, Eminency, Riot and Hickory all contested Class 3 events on their latest start. Both of these trends suggest that you need to be looking for a horse who knows how to ply his or her trade at this level and is in a good vein of form as it’s difficult to bounce back to winning form in a field of this quality.
Moving on from recent form to overall career form, and 16 of the last 21 winners had notched up at least one victory over 7f, the International Stakes distance. Surprisingly there are six in the field here that are yet to taste success over the trip; Billyjoh, Orazio, Fivethousandtoone, Dancing Magic, Summerghand and Eminency. A run here at the course has proved vital too, with all of the last 21 winners having experienced the Berkshire track with an Ascot run under their belt. The majority of the field fit this trend, with Aalto and New Image the sole two horses who will be experiencing the track for the very first time. Additionally, 16 of the last 21 winners had won between two and four times in their career; we are looking for horse who has proved their ability to get their head in front, but not given the handicapper too much of a chance to get a grasp on them.
Race fitness has proved key in this contest over the years, and a recent run has been vital to success in the International Stakes with all of the past 21 winners having had a run in the previous 38 days. There are three who don’t fit in this bracket; however, they only just miss out (the longest break is 44 days) and we have no horses arriving here off a huge layoff.
The draw bias on the straight track at Ascot has always been one of life’s biggest puzzles to solve, but there seems to be a trend that has emerged in the International Stakes of high draws having a good record as 13 of the last 17 winners have come from double figure stalls.
After running our tried and tested trends on the entire field then, we have three who are clear on the table and make up our shortlist. The first of those is rapid improver BILLYJOH for Michael Appleby, who made his handicap debut from a mark of 79 just last August and now sits on a mark of 95 following a string of good efforts. The four-year-old ran a cracker when second in the Buckingham Palace Stakes when last seen: stepping up to this trip for the first time, he rattled home once switched approaching the furlong pole and saw out the extra distance extremely well. He found only one too good, but for those of you who read our Horses To Follow blog, you know how highly we rate the winner English Oak. He was extremely well in at Royal Ascot and holds entries in races like the Lennox, so he could develop into a Group performer. It was no disgrace to be behind the Wathnan-owned horse then, and the form in behind has worked out well since with the other Wathnan runner, Make Me King, bolting up at Newcastle last time and the third and fifth placing in top handicaps. Whilst he has only won once on the turf, he had showed good form prior to Royal Ascot on his two previous runs. Just held at this track by Glenfinnan (fifth in the Wokingham) in May before a slightly unlucky fourth at Haydock (the third a winner since). He was inconvenienced by his track position that day, well off the pace before flying home eye-catchingly up the stands rail. He has been raised just 2lbs for his Royal Ascot performance and looks completely unexposed at this trip so he is the selection here.
The aforementioned Make Me King set a furious gallop at Royal Ascot, perhaps used a de facto pacemaker for English Oak for the powerful owner group but did stick to his task well when headed to finish eighth in an ultra-hot renewal. He was dropped a pound for that run and reappeared just over a week later at Newcastle on the All-Weather. Switching to much more patient tactics, he travelled sweetly off the pace and found plenty when asked for his effort, surging clear to win by over two lengths despite slightly hanging right. It was a first winner in the UK for trainer Hamad Al-Jehani and he clearly has plenty of class, acquitting himself well in Group company in both France and Dubai previously. This is no easy task from a 3lb higher mark and top weight (OR105) but he is trending in right direction.
Last but not least and rounding out our shortlist is Metal Merchant for Jack Channon. The form of the yard would have to be a slight concern (7% strike rate over the past fortnight) but the four-year-old has good course form and won a strong race here last October, the runner-up since the winner of the Qatar Derby whilst the third finished fourth in the Royal Hunt Cup. The Make Believe gelding returned with a good victory in the competitive Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile before chasing home Royal Hunt Cup second Sonny Liston back at the track, with Bunbury Cup winner Aalto in behind. His effort when seventh in the Royal Hunt Cup can be marked up somewhat, faring best of those from a single figure draw and travelling well through the contest before just hanging under pressure late. He didn’t seem to have any excuses when disappointing last time at Sandown but is interesting dropping back to this stiff seven furlongs from a 1lb lower mark.
bettrends Advice:
BILLYJOH 0.5pts E/W @ 11/1 (Ladbrokes, 5 places)
4.05 Chester – The Greenhous Daf Handicap (Class 2) (JH)
Open handicaps are often excellent races on paper and this one looks a tough three-year-old only puzzle to solve. Knicks bolted through the early stages last time out over course and distance, quickly establishing a five-length lead over his rivals. He quickly faded approaching the home straight and a drop back to five furlongs looks the best answer for the speedy type, while similar comments apply to Irish Nectar who has yet to score over this trip. Balon d’Or (2nd) and Eye Of Dubai (3rd) dualled out the finish in the same race and they look set for battle once again here. The latter gets the vote to reverse the form with a 2lb weight swing in his favour and being drawn in stall two could prove deadly. He missed the break last time and was shuffled back to last before coming home powerfully to pick up third. He will be one to watch and should go close.
Top weight Action Point looked a fine prospect when second in a Listed race at Chantilly on his return. The form of that race looks questionable though and hasn’t quite worked out. He has been struggling in similar events since, also. Gelded for this so possibly will need the run and his mark of 95 still looks harsh on handicap debut. Ralph Beckett and Hector Crouch team up with Matters Most who contested arguably a stronger handicap than this last time out at Pontefract when third of seven. However, he was most disappointing at Royal Ascot and has an outside draw in nine which is less than ideal around this tight track.
There should be more to come from the selection WARM SPELL, with Roger Varian saddling just two runners across the seven-race card. This valuable £50,000 prize money will certainly be on his radar and this expensive sort was purchased for 260,000gns. He will surely be better than his current mark in time. Given a lengthy break and being gelded, the son of Mehmas travelled well for a long time over 6f on the Rowley Mile course and was in behind a load of horses now rated 100+ in the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster (7f). This screams out that he will enjoy the task at Chester, and with a hope he can get a decent position from stall five, Ray Dawson could see victory here.
Course and distance winner Gardfield Show completed his hat-trick when winning here in May. The bright colt finished ahead of the selection in that race at Newmarket but had race fitness on side. He has the advantage in stall one but was totally outclassed at York and this looks another competitive affair. Another each-way player.
bettrends Advice:
WARM SPELL 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (Bet365)
4:35 York – The Sky Bet Prize Drop Handicap (Class 4) (JB2)
We turn to York to tackle a lower-class affair than those happening at Ascot as, whilst winless since leaving Sir Michael Stoute in 2023, THEME PARK is becoming too well-handicapped to ignore. Formerly owned by the Queen, the Lope De Vega gelding made a promising start to his career as a two-year-old, chasing home multiple Group winner Silver Knott on debut before winning a Kempton novice. He subsequently joined the yard of Nigel Tinkler and whilst he didn’t enter the winners’ enclosure last term, he showed flashes of solid form. He finished a good sixth here at the Dante meeting, beaten just two-and-a-half lengths from a mark of 86 in a race that worked out well; the winner winning twice since and now rated 5lbs higher, the third Ramazan now rated 11lbs higher and the fifth enjoying a stellar campaign thereafter with a runner-up finish in both the Britannia Stakes and the Group 2 Hungerford. He was then second over course and distance before a third at Chester to Ralph Beckett’s Balance Play, who shot up 18lbs by seasons end with victories at Goodwood and Newbury. This season, he clearly needed the run on reappearance but ran well when fifth up in trip here behind Botanical (runner-up in the John Smith’s Cup) with Epic Poet in behind (second at Royal Ascot and an unlucky fifth in the John Smith’s Cup). He has had excuses the last twice, both time preferring a quicker surface, but he did keep on well when out in the clear here at York last time. His form at the track is solid, with form figures reading 622505, and he has dropped down to a career low mark of just 78. He has become frustrating to follow but has pieces of form that mean he can’t be ignored here, especially back on fast ground.
Boy Douglas and Zozimus are closely matched on their run here at York back in June behind Pisanello, finishing second and fourth respectively, with just half-a-length separating the pair, and so it is surprising to see them so far apart in the betting. David O’Meara’s Zozimus was denied a clear run that day and now receives a 3lb swing in the weights, however he must bounce back from two below-par efforts since. Boy Douglas did win at Ayr on his previous start and hasn’t been seen since York, and perhaps the price differential comes from the fact Michael Dods’ four-year-old is much more unexposed than his older rival. Barley was well beaten that day, but that clearly wasn’t his true running, and he has taken his form up a notch since, winning impressively at Carlisle and remaining in good form with a second back at that track last time. The winner has done little to enhance the form since, however.
Eagle Day chases the hattrick for David Evans following wins at Haydock and Chelmsford and a 5lb rise may not be enough to halt his progress, despite now on a career-high mark. Master Of Combat has finished in the first three in four of his last five starts and is a model of consistency, however the pick of his form has come on the All-Weather and his record on turf now stands at 1-11. Hortzadar isn’t the most consistent of horses now a nine-year-old, but David O’Meara’s gelding has now dropped back to below his last winning mark. He must bounce back from a poor effort at Ayr last time but did register two consecutive runner-up finishes prior to that.
bettrends Advice:
THEME PARK 0.5pts E/W @ 10/1 (Bet365, 4 places)
NAP: SIMMERING
NB: FRIENDLY SOUL