Handicap Breakers 2024 - Cesarewitch Handicap
Welcome to another instalment of the Handicap Breakers (Flat) service.
3:40 Newmarket – The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
We arrive at the final race of our Handicap Breakers service, and this lucrative staying contest is perhaps one of the toughest to break down from a trends perspective.
The age factor isn’t the clearest of pictures, but older horses do tend to go best here, with nine of the last 12 winners being aged five or older, including all the last six. Although four-year-olds have had some success – winning the other three in that period - it does appear to be three-year-olds who are at the biggest disadvantage as Darley Sun is the only three-year-old this century to land the prize, winning here in 2009 for David Simcock. There are no representatives from the three-year-old age group this year, and there are seven-four-year-olds.
It isn’t a surprise that in a marathon contest such as this, run over a testing 2m2f here at Newmarket, that lightweights have prospered with 18 of the last 22 winners carting 9st2lbs or less to victory. The only horse to carry more to victory in the last decade was Willie Mullins’ Stratum in 2019. There are just seven in the race who carry more than this, from Queenstown down to Magellan Strait in the racecard. The former - officially rated 107 – will bid to become the joint-highest rated winner – along with 2010 winner Aaim To Prosper – to land the spoils in the last 20 years.
The weight factor goes hand in hand with the official ratings and it would seem that the best bracket for the Cesarewitch would be those rated from 84 to 94, with 12 of the last 17 winners falling into this sweet spot.
The 2m2f trip really sorts the tough from the weak and with the rise in the dip coming around a furlong out, you don’t want to be siding with a doubtful stayer. This is backed up in the trends too, with 13 of the past 22 winners having notched up a victory over at least two miles on the flat prior to success in the Cesarewitch. The current market leader, the Mullins hotpot Sea Of Sands, falls down on this trend with his longest victory coming in a ten-furlong German Group 3 back in 2021. He was well beaten on his only start over two miles on the flat, granted in Listed company.
Building on from this, with such a stamina test on the horizon here, race fitness has proved important before the big day and 12 of the last 16 winners had run at least three times in the season. There are number in this field who don’t tick this criterion including, again, Sea Of Sands who returned from a two-year break when winning a maiden hurdle last month and last year’s winner The Shunter, who hasn’t been sighted since a Pertemps Qualifier last November.
Low Sun bucked the trend in 2018 – the last winner to do so - but historically a top-4 finish last time out is a significant advantage with 16 of the last 22 winners backing that up in the trends. This would be a worry for the likes of Magellan Strait, Queenstown and Shagpyle who arrive here in a real competitive contest with something to prove and looking to bounce back. Furthermore, on this, in such a hot handicap we do want horses who have proven to be in good form throughout the season and ten of the last 17 winners of the Cesarewitch had won during the year.
The Cesarewitch rarely raises any alarms when it comes to the trends and the fact that National Hunt trainers have a good record shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Jumps trainers have been responsible for all of the last six winners, and five of those were Irish-trained - Willie Mullins leads the charge with three straight successes between 2018 and 2020. The Master of Closutton saddles the favourite here whilst, at the time of writing, the next three in the market are trained by either Gavin Cromwell or Emmet Mullins.
Shortlist
SIXANDAHALF
ALPHONSE LE GRANDE
SAMUI
EVALUATION
After running our tried and tested trends system on the entre Cesarewitch field then, there are two who come out on top and the first of those is the Gavin Cromwell raider, SIXANDAHALF. The four-year-old mare was a wildly impressive 11-length winner of a bumper at the Punchestown Festival back in April and backed that up when winning her first start on the flat in a mile-and-a-half Cork fillies maiden. Making her handicap debut a couple of starts later at Galway, she ran better than the bare result when sixth having been short of room and slightly outpaced over the trip. Up in trip then at Newmarket, she showed a determined attitude to see of Cabrera – who is now rated 7lbs higher – over 14 furlongs, the pair well clear of the rest. It was her last run in the Irish Cesarewitch though that really put her on the radar as a major contender for this contest. From a mark of 88 off a short break, she was always prominent and travelled smartly through the race to be beaten just over a length in third by one who no doubt was a Group performer in a handicap. She had several reopposing horses in behind that day and has gone up just 1lb for the performance. She proved her stamina for this sort of trip there at the Curragh and, with just six career starts on the flat, can go on improving.
Joining the mare atop of our shortlist then is ALPHONSE LE GRANDE. Progressive at the start of the year and landing the Chester Plate rather comfortably when in the ‘name’ of Tony Martin, the five-year-old has continued that improvement with a new name on the license since. On his first start for Mrs C O’Leary, the Sea The Stars gelding overcame keenness when running out a good winner of the Northumberland Vase over the extended trip at Newcastle back in June. The form of that race has actually worked out pretty well, with the Mallard winner Faylaq back in sixth and there are clearly no stamina concerns having won both that contest and the Chester Plate. He ran no sort of race next time at Galway, but that race can have a line drawn through it having switched to hold up tactics and his effort when eighth in the Irish Cesarewitch last time was much more encouraging. Given a nine week break after that below par Galway run, he was shuffled back and was short of room in the middle of the pack around three furlongs out but kept on well in the final couple of furlongs. With that run under his belt, no doubt to set up a tilt at this race, it would be of no surprise to see him bounce back with a big effort here. I would like to see him again ridden a bit more prominently here, as he was at Chester and Newcastle.
We then have two just below on our trends table that round out our shortlist. The first of those is, you guessed, trained by an Irish jumps trainer with Gordon Elliott’s SAMUI. He must overcome a lofty weight here with a rating of 105, but there is reason to believe this classy performer is still on a handy mark given what he has achieved. A Listed handicap hurdle winner last term he made a winning start on the flat when readily landing a Down Royal maiden in May. The five-year-old backed that up when chasing home Galway Festival winner Eagle’s Way next time before bolting up by an easy 17-lengths on handicap debut at Killarney up to 2m1f. That wasn’t the strongest affair admittedly, but he ran a cracker when runner-up in the always-competitive Sky Bet Stayers Handicap at York from a massively increased mark of 102 next time - the winner of that race has gone in again in a handicap hurdle. Stepped up to Listed class the last twice then, he kept on well behind proper Group horses Absurde and Caius Chorister in the Chester Stakes and that was a mighty performance. He ran no sort of race last time on bad ground at Newmarket but back on drying ground and in handicap company, he could have a class angle over many of these in this field.
Last but not least then we have Lucinda Russell’s EVALUATION who made our shortlist when running a massive race to finish second in the Northumberland Plate at odds of 40/1. On the back of a narrow victory over Miss Cynthia at Wolverhampton – now rated 18lbs higher than she was that day – the six-year-old stayed on extremely strongly at Newcastle to be beaten just two-and-a-half lengths by the winner, a length-and-a-half clear of the third. He was forced to race wide early in that contest and did run into a bit of traffic when making his challenge from the rear, so it was a good performance. The gelding couldn’t back that up at York next time but showed more encouraging signs when fifth in the Mallard last time, beaten two-and-a-half lengths having made a slow start and keeping on well. He will have to take a big step forward again here to be competitive but he is as stout a stayer as they come.