Punchestown Festival Service 2025 DAY ONE
Hello and welcome to the bettrends Punchestown Festival Service – where we will have the trends analysis for the feature race as well as a best bet in any other race each day.
6:00 Punchestown – The William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1)
The second of three Grade 1s on the opening day of the meeting, Cheltenham’s Queen Mother Champion Chase is often the best guide towards the race, with Energumene completing the double in both 2022 and 2023. Captain Guinness was only agonisingly denied last year in his quest to complete the double, beaten a neck by Banbridge. Last year’s runner-up was just the seventh Champion Chase winner to attempt the double since 2006 and five of the septet have proven successful. Marine Nationale was an emotional winner of the Cheltenham contest last month, and bids to add his name to that illustrious list that also includes the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Master Minded. Additionally, since 2003, 15 of the past 21 winners of this race had contested the Queen Mother Champion Chase, so the feature from day two of the Cheltenham Festival is without doubt the most significant pointer. Captain Guinness finished third and Solness fourth, albeit the pair well beaten by Barry Connell’s impressive winner.
As with many of the Grade 1s at the Punchestown Festival, this is a race in which trainer Willie Mullins boasts a fine recent record. Prior to last year, Mullins had won the five previous renewals of the race, with his last three winners all returning as short-priced favourites. The Master of Closutton is represented by emphatic Ryanair Chase winner Fact To File as well as four-time Grade 1 winner El Fabiolo, who arrives here on a comeback mission following a fall at Aintree.
Whilst age can be a barrier to success in many a championship race at the Cheltenham Festival, older horses have proven to be successful in the Punchestown Champion Chase. There have been six double-digit aged winners since 2004 and in all, 23 of the past 27 winners aged eight or older. Solness is the sole ‘younger’ horse in the race, aged seven.
Banbridge had won a Grade 1 novice chase the previous spring at Aintree and in doing so, became the 15th winner in the past 16 renewals to have already been successful at the highest level. Felix Yonger is the only winner during this period to have failed to win at Grade 1 level previously, a trend that Webster Cup winner Senecia will also be bidding to defy.
17 of the past 23 winners finished either first or second last time out – with 14 of them successful on their latest start – so, although a defeat can be forgiven, we should still be leaning towards those who are in form. In general, look for those who are coming here on the back of a good run and the trio of Fact To File, Marine Nationale and Senecia arrive here as last-time-out winners. In terms of earlier in the campaign, only Un de Sceaux (2019) had failed to win at least once earlier in the campaign – both Captain Guinness and El Fabiolo fall down here.
Banbridge became the 14th winner this century to have won over further earlier in the season, so stamina certainly isn’t a negative. Pay due respect to those with winning form over an intermediate trip, such as wide-margin Ryanair winner Fact To File and Webster Cup winner Senecia.
Shortlist
FACT TO FILE
MARINE NATIONALE
After applying our tried and tested trends on the Champion Chase field then, the horse who leads the way on our table is FACT TO FILE for leading trainer Willie Mullins. Last year’s Brown Advisory winner was campaigned earlier in the season with the Gold Cup in mind, scoring in a red-hot edition of the John Durkan on reappearance in good style. He followed home Gold Cup runner-up Galopin Des Champs home the next twice over three miles, not looking to truly stay, before dropping back in distance for the Ryanair and demolishing the field at Cheltenham. He settled much better and jumped and travelled superbly through the race, before quickening clear with ease to a top-class victory. He looks to have the speed for this minimum trip on what he has shown over the intermediate trip over fences – and was also second in a Champion Bumper. He is 4lbs clear at the top of the official ratings (172) and looks the one to beat.
Just below on our trends table then is Champion Chase winner MARINE NATIONALE, who landed the premier two-mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival by a whopping 18 lengths. Barry Connell’s Supreme winner is still lightly raced over fences and has improved with each start in open company this season. His Champion Chase victory does need a little bit of context however, main rival Jonbon making a shuddering error that scuppered his chances and Quilixios still in contention when falling at the last. He has already displayed his pace for two miles however and must rate the biggest danger to the favourite.
3:05 Punchestown - The Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Final Handicap Hurdle
A fantastic new initiative last season, the Full Circle Series offers a valuable pot to the winner and gives a chance to those slightly lower-rated horses, and those from smaller stables, that may have struggled to get a run at the major festivals previously. 25 runners go to post, and it is an ultra-competitive contest, with plenty of runners from the UK making the trip across the Irish Sea.
The British horses, compared to their Irish counterparts, look incredibly well-handicapped here and were in fact responsible for two of the first three home in last year’s inaugural race. Nicky Henderson has both Noble Park and Crazierthandaisy in here. The former remains a maiden over hurdles but is 6lbs better off with Almuhit here for a five-and-a-half length second at Warwick last time. He was let down by his jumping that day, and a more fluent round could see him close that gap. Crazierthandaisy is 4lbs better off with Ben Brookhouse’s Blue Hop and may have finished closer to that rival at Wetherby last time if not for a costly mistake at the final flight. The six-year-old mare scored in good style at Warwick on her penultimate start and remains unexposed after just the four hurdles starts. The O’Neill’s Stay If U Want To was a comfortable winner of his qualifier at Kelso last time but must run off what is effectively a 15lb higher mark here with claimer Benjamin Macey replaced by Jonjo in the saddle. Rocheval didn’t appear to stay the longer the trip that day and should appreciate this drop back in distance but must recover from a fall at Kelso last time.
The one we are siding with here is Evan Williams’ BOYLES HILL who looks incredibly well-handicapped from a mark of 112 and looks to have been saved for this race since winning his qualifier at Chepstow in January. The six-year-old has won his last two in handicap company, digging deep and showing a determined attitude to score from a mark of 102 at Ffos Las and again showing a good attitude to see off Lanesborough at Chepstow last time from a mark of 107. That form has worked out incredibly well, Ben Pauling’s runner-up advertising the form when bolting up from a 5lb higher mark next time and he is now rated 13lbs higher. Whilst both of his last two victories have come on heavy ground, he doesn’t need it bottomless having won his maiden on good ground, and he is a versatile type.
As far as the home challenge goes, Gavin Cromwell holds a strong hand with three interesting runners. Bridie’s Beau was disappointing up in trip last time but scored in smart style over course and distance back in January, before backing up at Gowran Park in a qualifier. The handicapper has taken no chances however, still 9lbs higher than that last winning mark. Londonofficecallin also scored over course and distance last time on just his second start back over obstacles. He won with a fair bit in hand that day but must progress again here from a 10lb higher mark. Hartur D’Arc is the pick of Keith Donoghue, the eight-year-old finished runner-up in the Leinster National last time from a mark of 137 and arrives here on a much-reduced hurdles mark (118). He was slightly unfortunate when hampered and making a mistake at the last in his qualifier at Naas, and he is dangerously treated. Gordon Elliott has entrusted Timmy Tuesday in the hands of 7lb claimer Josh Williamson on the back of his excellent Aintree second, but he must carry a lofty weight at the head of affairs, whilst Mark Walsh rides Slanagaibhgoleir for JP McManus, who has become a little frustrating this season. Billy Lee Swagger was fourth in the race last year and arrives here on just a 3lb higher mark so can go well again, whilst Luminous Light chases a hattrick for Anthony McCann.
bettrends Advice:
BOYLES HILL E/W
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