Trials and Tribulations
Welcome to the 2025 Weatherbys Flat Horses To Follow Online Updates!
As you know, these updates aren’t strictly scheduled, but the tempo of the Flat season refuses to let up in the early parts of the season—and after a thrilling Guineas weekend packed with drama as well as the completion of all the Epsom Trials, now felt like the perfect time to check back in before more Classics in Ireland this coming weekend. Our Guineas double at Newmarket has given us plenty to celebrate, and with several of our leading horses to follow making headlines and others quietly catching the eye, there's no shortage of talking points.
So let us rewind to just before the roar of the Classics at Newmarket, where momentum was already building—and where one of our well-touted names laid down a serious marker for what promises to be a compelling summer campaign. That horse was Cosmic Year, who ultimately sidestepped a trip to the Guineas but was emphatic in taking the Listed King Charles II Stakes in fine style on the eve of the 2000 Guineas. Harry Charlton’s Kingman colt was a fairly noticeable drifter on the day – from odds-on out to 6/4 – and there were plenty of mitigating factors with the quick ground, the dip and his lack of experience all potential reasons for this. However, under an excellent Ryan Moore ride – who coaxed him excellently through the race despite his high head carriage and unfamiliarity with the dip – he delivered a performance that underscores his potential as a leading three-year-old miler this season. He did hang about the place taking the dip but quickened clear in the final half-furlong like a real smart performer, and there was a lot to like about his one-and-a-half length victory. There are plenty of options now available for the unbeaten colt, but you would think he will be planned around the likes of Field Of Gold and Jonquil for the same owners. He holds entries in both the Irish 2,000 Guineas and St James’ Palace Stakes – whilst sticking at seven-furlongs for the Jersey Stakes at the Royal Meeting also wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world. Personally, I would love to see him in the SJP as it looks a race that would really suit, but he has a bright future ahead of him whatever path he may take.
Elsewhere on the Friday, I was again disappointed with Treble Tee at Goodwood as he weakened away tamely into a well-beaten fifth. Perhaps he didn’t quite stay the mile, but that would be making excuses for a poor performance, and he looks a far cry away from a pattern-level performer on what he has shown on two starts this season. He has been handed an opening mark of 93, and handicaps may now be the route he goes down. I was however pleased with the racecourse debut of Secret Santa, who finished fourth in the two-year-old novice stakes earlier on the card. Richard Hannon’s Lucky Vega colt displayed plenty of promise on his debut, despite being a little slow away. Held up and just learning as he went, he stayed on nicely in the closing furlong under minimal pressure up the smaller, disadvantaged stand-side group. Reappearing at Newbury last week with that experience under his belt, the colt improved again to finish third beaten just over a length – travelling well through proceedings but just unable to quicken behind two potentially smart types. Whilst unlikely to be a Royal Ascot type, the big, valuable sales races like the Weatherbys Super Sprint or the Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes would make plenty of appeal later in the season.
Moving onto to the Classic itself then and Ruling Court delivered a commanding performance to win the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – the first Classic secured for our 2025 Flat Horses To Follow. Ultimately sent off as a 9/2 second favourite, the race unfolded with Ruling Court settling towards the rear of the 11-runner field, alongside his stablemate and pre-race favourite, Shadow Of Light with Godolphin's Tornado Alert setting only a steady early pace. As the field approached the two-furlong marker, Buick began to urge Ruling Court forward and crucially got first run on main market rival Field Of Gold. The colt responded impressively, quickening powerfully to challenge for the lead.
Shadow Of Light emerged as the primary threat, delivering a strong run on the opposite side of the track to join Ruling Court in front with a furlong remaining. However, Ruling Court's stamina, proved superior in the final stages. He edged ahead of his stablemate in the closing strides, holding off the fast-finishing Field Of Gold, who had been slightly delayed in making his challenge – ultimately costing jockey Kieran Shoemark his Juddmonte rides. It was a game performance under an exquisite William Buick ride, and the Derby looks to be next on the agenda for the Justify colt – bidding to give his burgeoning sire consecutive winners at Epsom. His stamina for the trip is not assured, but it is a muddling Derby picture at present even after all the trials – and he no doubt brings the strongest form to the table with this Guineas victory.
William Buick once again proved the man for the job for us the following day in the 1000 Guineas, bringing up a Classic double for Godolphin, Charlie Appleby and our Flat Horses To Follow. Starting as the even-money favourite, Desert Flower broke sharply and settled into a steady rhythm out in front. As the field approached the Dip, she was momentarily challenged with outsider Flight taking a slight lead. However, Desert Flower responded impressively, finding another gear on the rising ground to regain the advantage and win going away at the line. She probably didn’t have to improve on her two-year-old form to land the spoils in a fairly weak renewal, her main market rival Lake Victoria most likely in need of a run as many of Ballydoyle’s appear to in the Guineas these days. The Night Of Thunder filly proved she has trained on with this professional performance however, and came away much the best filly in the contest. Whilst the Irish 1,000 Guineas would look the obvious next port of call, Appleby appears to be favouring a bold crack at the Oaks. She is relaxed and professional, which would give hope she would stay the trip, whilst she is also related to smart stayer Arabian Comet and finished off her race strongly at Newmarket. However, being out of Night Of Thunder there will always be slight stamina concerns when it comes to middle distances.
That Sunday proved a red-letter day at Newmarket for our Flat Horses To Follow with Falakeyah landing the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes and Story Horse scoring in the 1m6f handicap. Falakeyah could not have been more impressive, living up to her family name and looking a potential superstar in the process. Owen Burrows’ New Bay filly was enthusiastic on the front end as she took a strong hold, which made her finishing effort – where she stretched away from a strong field – that much more taking, scoring by over three lengths at the line. She has proven headstrong and keen, so it is no surprise that connections are currently favouring the Diane rather than the Oaks – as she may just pull away her chance around Epsom. The form of the Pretty Polly has been boosted since too, with the third winning the Listed Trial at Newbury this past weekend and she is one of the most exciting fillies in training at this point who could take all the beating in the French Oaks at Chantilly. Story Horse proved game and determined when digging deep to hold on in the 1m6f handicap later on the card and, as we pointed out in our last update, that trip does appear to be his optimum. He has been raised 3lb for that success but was probably worth a little bit more considering he was keen early and bumped by the runner-up in the closing stages. I would like to see the five-year-old stick at this trip, but he has been entered over two miles at Goodwood on Friday, once again perhaps just testing his stamina. Merchant caught the eye when staying on behind two race-fit rivals in the closing ten-furlong handicap, just caught too far back. The yard clearly know what they have though as he was backed off the boards, and made amends this past week as he scored in comfortable fashion over a mile-and-a-half at York. Travelling powerfully throughout, he relished every yard of the trip and appeals as one who will only improve as he develops through the season. He is probably due a hefty rise for that win but was rated just 82, and he is likely to be contesting top three-year-old middle-distance handicaps – with the King George V at Royal Ascot a potential target for this progressive sort.
As we move on from Newmarket and assess some of the Trials that have taken place over the last fortnight, it has been a Ballydoyle procession with Aidan O’Brien dominating proceedings across the tracks. Giselle was a wide-margin winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trials but was entitled to be, sent off a prohibitive price in a weak three-runner field. The Frankel filly always promised to be a much better three-year-old once over middle distances, and I was impressed with how she lengthened clear to a whopping nine-length victory despite taking a strong hold early. Her demeanour would be a slight concern around Epsom, still keen and proving green, but the experience won’t be lost on her and she should step forward again. Ryan Moore has an incredibly tough decision to make in the Oaks, but Giselle clearly holds an incredible amount of raw ability and will prove a proper horse once she learns to settle and matures. Epsom may just come too soon, but I have no doubt she is a Group 1 filly in the making. The trainer’s Acapulco Bay was slightly disappointing behind stablemate Delacroix in the Leopardstown Derby Trial however. That was a bit of a farce of a race as they went no gallop, and it turned into a test of speed – which would not have suited this stayer – and he was never put into the race from the rear. He is going to be a slow work in progress this year and you will imagine they will just let him gradually improve through the season. I still hold plenty of hope for his potential later in the season, and he could well be a St Leger runner in the making.
The exciting The Lion In Winter finally made his belated return to the track in the Dante Stakes, not a usual route for Aidan O’Brien’s Derby horses, but as such emphasising the rush they have been under to get a run into him. He could only finish sixth in the race and, whilst plenty were quick to write him off and put it all down to hype, I thought it was a promising return after a lengthy break where he has clearly had his issues. He got himself worked up at the start and was incredibly keen in the first couple of furlongs, pulling Moore’s arms out in the saddle. He was then checked off in his run entering the straight and Ryan Moore wasn’t hard on him thereafter, for all he did plug on okay into sixth. The Dante was not the be all and end all, more a means to an end. We have seen O’Brien bring Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy back from much worse performances before landing the Derby and, if taking his chance at Epsom, I would be confident we see a much different, and improved, horse. The Derby picture is pretty murky at present and, if chosen by Ryan Moore, that will be a sign of confidence that they have got him back to his best. His Acomb Stakes victory could hardly have worked out any stronger and a rematch with Ruling Court would prove tasty to say the least. In the Musidora, Smoken was well backed before the off, but I think we can put a line through that effort. She didn’t run her race, not appearing to handle the ground and scoping dirty post-race. She is well worth another chance based on her two-year-old form, which has worked out well, when she recovers and gets some cut in the ground.
My Cloud again proved himself to be one of the most progressive handicappers in the country when defying a 10lb rise at Newbury on Saturday. Slowly into stride, Roger Varian’s Blue Point colt overcame a poor position and the run of the race to sweep home from the rear. That effort can be marked up given how the race developed, and it was a decent field on paper. Sonny Liston won the race last year before being narrowly denied in the Royal Hunt Cup, and My Cloud looks a leading contender for the Ascot handicap at this point. We can perhaps count ourselves unlucky not to count Auld Toon Loon as a winner for our older horses to follow, denied just a head at Chester having got no run. Tom Dascombe’s six-year-old made his return at a huge price over ten furlongs, forced to wait an age up the inner for his run but flying home with the wind in his sails once in the clear – just failing. He has been bumped up 3lbs by the handicapper but should come forward for the outing and still looks well treated. Apotheosis made an encouraging return after nine months off for the Crisford team at Newcastle, finishing third. He probably needed the run, going freely on the front end and just did too much out in front, ultimately fading in the final furlong. Left on the same mark, he should come forward for that run and is entered at Goodwood on Friday – which appeals as a track which will suit the four-year-old.
The other winner we want to talk about quickly is Charles Darwin (still unnamed when the book was published), who supplemented his impressive Navan victory with a facile victory at Naas on Sunday back at five furlongs. Blackbeard’s full brother didn’t need to improve to score again but is building up a wealth of experience and is amongst the smartest juveniles we have seen hit the track as we approach Royal Ascot. Connections have Albert Einstein for the Coventry, and it looks like the Norfolk is the race for this lad.
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