Will they stay? The Million Pound Question

Welcome to the 2025 Weatherbys Flat Horses To Follow Online Updates!

It has been just over two weeks since our latest update and we have had Classics at the Curragh, a pair of Group 3 winners and a wildly exciting two-year-old debut – all of which we need to dissect before we look ahead to our runners in the upcoming Derby and Oaks this weekend.

Let us start with the Irish 2,000 Guineas then, and we were represented by just Cosmic Year who ran a cracker just finish runner-up in just his fourth career start. The previously unbeaten Kingman colt had improved with each and every run upped in grade, and again continued on a steep upward trajectory to confirm himself amongst the top milers of his generation. His experience and professionalism were the concerns going into the race and, whilst he did take a fairly strong hold, he went through his race with much more maturity. He didn’t have a completely clear run, forced to switch two furlongs out for his challenge and keeping on nicely into second. He proved no match for the same connections’ Field Of Gold, but that is no shame, the Gosdens’ Newmarket runner-up progressing again and looking an extremely smart animal – the one they all have to beat in the St James’ Palace. Cosmic Year finished three-quarters-of-a-length ahead of third – Group 1 winner Hotazhell – and it was an excellent performance. I did wonder whether they may consider the Jersey Stakes back over seven furlongs at Royal Ascot as their next target, the stiff finish promising to suit, but connections appear to be favouring the Prix Jean-Prat and clearly, like us, are steadfast in their belief that he is a Group 1 winner in waiting.

It proved a busy weekend and our other runner at the Curragh was Ghostwriter, who I was disappointed with in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. Granted it was a hot race and he was returning off a two-month layoff after his Meydan run, but he just never picked up once the race developed and did look ungainly and lacked fluency under pressure. It could be said he was squeezed of room, but if he was good enough, he could have gotten through the gap. Whilst I would be willing to excuse the run as he may have needed it on his comeback run, I just wonder whether his sights may now be lowered slightly. He has raced exclusively in Group 1 company for over a year now and it could do his confidence the world of good to drop in grade. I believe a race like the Group 2 York Stakes would be a perfect race for him, staged at a course where he ran perhaps a career-best when third in the Juddmonte International last season. One horse I was extraordinarily pleased with in Group 1 company that day though was Sardinian Warrior, who a stormer when runner-up to Sosie in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan. Stepping up from his Listed success a month prior, the rapidly improving four-year-old was having his first start in this company and was taking on seasoned top performers in the process. He travelled best into the race and powered to the lead at the 300m pole but, despite sticking to his task exceptionally well, was just grinded down by a top-level Group 1 performer with proven stamina for further. He was beaten just a length by a horse is now favourite for the Arc, and has no doubt confirmed himself a true pattern performer in his two starts this term. I still think he is an out-and-out miler and would love to see him take his chance in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot next, already a course and distance winner.

Elsewhere on the Longchamp card, Rouge Sellier looked a non-stayer over two miles but likely also needed the run on reappearance. That effort can readily have a line put through it and a return to 1m4f – 1m6f will surely be on the cards next. They could aim for something like the Lancashire Oaks back on home soil, whilst it would be very in-character for Sir Mark Prescott to find a couple of stakes races in Germany to hoover up in the next couple of months. Trad Jazz finished fourth in the Height Of Fashion Stakes, just lacking a turn of foot, and as we have said on this update before, she really does need a sterner test of stamina and it was surprising to see her remain at ten furlongs again here. Already a winner over further on return and from a family that features a Derby winner and an Irish St Leger winner, she should improve later in the season as her stamina is stretched out. Star Of Light was a place back in the Listed Goodwood contest and just continues to be her own worst enemy. Tried in first-time cheekpieces, she still didn’t settle fully and again looked awkward under pressure, carrying her head awkward once again. I still believe the Frankel daughter of Star Catcher has bundles of ability, but her mental attitude will continue to let her down until she matures. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her have a short break now whilst I do think she needs a professional jockey on board when next seen, no shade on Luke Catton though. On the same card, Story Horse backed up his Newmarket victory with an excellent second over the same trip – just bumping into an extremely unexposed and well-handicapped four-year-old in French Master. Produced to lead a furlong out, he was just nailed close home to go down by just a neck from a career-high mark and that looks strong form that is worth following this season. Raised another 2lbs, he has more big performances in him and has developed into a real 1m6f specialist – as we expressed he would do in the publication.  

Earlier in the week at Haydock, we celebrated a couple of winners with both Wild Desert and Duran successful at the Lancashire track. The former, a Too Darn Hot half-brother to the champion two-year-old colt Shadow Of Light, produced a breathtaking performance on his racecourse debut, easily cruising to a five-length victory over seven furlongs. Also related to Earthlight, he looks incredibly smart himself on this evidence. The colt does not actually qualify for the conditions for the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot but looks to have plenty of speed to drop back down to six-furlongs for the Coventry, whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take in another novice event before being aimed at the Superlative Stakes – similar to stablemate Ancient Truth last year. A day earlier, Duran got his well-deserved victory following consecutive runner-up finishes this season, catching the eye both times.  He reversed form with Ascot winner Blue Day with a sweeping run from the rear and has developed into a real useful handicapper – winning here at a nice price of 9/2 too. That was until a rare, below-par effort at York this past weekend when never involved and fading away rather tamely. With these sprinters, I would be happy to strike off a bad run and give them another chance next time, and he strikes as a likely type to bounce strike back – just last season he disappointed at Chester and Nottingham before bouncing back with victories at York.

Moving now to an excellent midweek card at Sandown last Thursday, and it was excellent to see Horses To Follow represent the first two home in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes – Almaqam leading home Ombudsman, with the pair well clear of the rest of the field. The former built on a promising return – when I don’t think he got the best of rides – and proved an excellent winner under a change of tactics. Ridden in the lead this time around, he showed a determined attitude to hold off the challenge of the latter, kicking on again in good style once Ombudsman threatened to pull alongside. He has continued his expected improvement into his four-year-old season and looks a real Group 1 contender over ten furlongs this season. Connections have stressed they would need a little ease in the ground to take their chance in the Prince Of Wales, but races later in the season like the British and Irish Champions Stakes look tailor-made for him. Whilst losing his unbeaten streak in the process, the incredibly progressive Ombudsman lost nothing in defeat here and it was a performance full of positives conceding both weight and race fitness on return. He too holds an entry in the Prince Of Wales and should come forward plenty for this outing. It is easy to forget he has had just the five career starts, and he looks the type to develop into a top-class performer at the highest level this season. Bay City Roller also lost his unbeaten record on the card, but I was encouraged by his return after nine months off the track following his Champagne Stakes victory. The New Bay colt was always going to face a stiff task conceding 5lbs to a race-fit Opera Ballo but emerged with plenty of promise. After travelling quite sweetly into the race, he looked momentarily outpaced before staying on again up to the line. Half-brother Botanical stayed further, and the dam was a Listed winner over 1m6f, so he should improve as his stamina is tested a little more. He holds entries in the St James’ Palace and Irish Derby, and I wonder whether the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot would be a sensible target next over ten furlongs.

We return back to Haydock one final time before moving onto a look ahead at the Derby and Oaks, but we cannot skip past Estrange’s monstrous victory in the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes. The ground may have been a slight concern beforehand on return, but the Night Of Thunder grey just proved a class apart wen bolting up by over four lengths with a thunderous display. It was a decent field too, the runner-up having her Listed success boosted on the same day in the Bronte Cup, but she galloped away from them as if they weren’t even in the same league as her. She has the option of the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes next but, whilst she is a winner over the distance, I do think she would prefer some cut in the ground if running over shorter. The Lancashire Oaks back at Haydock looks a perfect stepping stone before Group 1 assignments later in the season, to me at least.

Looking ahead to the main attractions this weekend at Epsom then, and we look to be represented by two from our Horses To Follow in the Oaks. The first of those, 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower, remains a hot favourite at the top of the market. The unbeaten filly no doubt brings by far the strongest form into the race thanks to her Newmarket success, and she clears the field on ratings, 7lbs clear of the closest. Lake Victoria – whilst not 100% at Newmarket – boosted the form when a wildly impressive winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas and this daughter of Night Of Thunder sets a high standard. The main concern in of course stamina, stepping up half-a-mile in trip here into unknown territory. The sire wouldn’t exactly fill you with utmost confidence over this trip – for all the aforementioned Estrange is also by the same sire – but she does have a mile-and-a-half horse on the damside as well as a couple of jumpers. She did win over a mile as a two-year-old and responded impressively to pressure in the Guineas, finding another gear on the rising ground to regain the advantage and win going away at the line – she didn’t seem to be stopping at the finish. She doesn’t quite fit the striding profile of a typical Oaks horse, but she also isn’t a million miles away, and her class may just see her through. It can be true you need a ten-furlong horse that can just about stay twelve, rather than a slow out-and-out stayer, and her class could just come to the fore here. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace on, which will help, but she wouldn’t want too much rain either. If she stays, she wins on all known form, but we won’t find out until we hit the home straight. Isn’t racing exciting!

The other runner is Giselle, who I believe has real ‘boom or bust’ potential – she has bundles of ability and I could see her improving leaps and bounds to bolt in, whilst she is a tricky customer who could be beat before they turn in. She was a wide-margin winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trials but that was an extremely weak three-runner field, granted. The Frankel filly always promised to be a much better three-year-old once over middle distances, and I was impressed with how she lengthened clear to a whopping nine-length victory despite taking a strong hold early. Her demeanour would be a concern around Epsom though, still keen and proving green, but the experience won’t be lost on her and she could step forward again. Colin Keane will have a real job settling her in this field, and she may not take to the undulations, but there is a real engine hiding under there if she can put it altogether.

Looking ahead to the Derby then – where we have two runners - and 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court perhaps sets the standard on all known form, and that Newmarket form was boosted when Field Of Gold routed the field on route to an impressive success in the Irish edition. It was a game performance under an exquisite William Buick ride at Newmarket, and the Derby is next on the agenda for the Justify colt – bidding to give his burgeoning sire consecutive winners at Epsom. His stamina for the trip is not assured however, and he doesn’t stride anything like a typical Derby winner, and I would just worry about him getting home if this became a test in worsening conditions. You do want a quick horse who can travel around here, but twelve furlongs is a question mark he has to answer– not to be helped by worsening ground. However, he was strong at the finish having made his challenge early at Newmarket and does bring the best form to the table if his reserves stretch out to the line. Appleby will be praying the rain stays away.

The exciting The Lion In Winter – favourite for this race all winter - finally made his belated return to the track in the Dante Stakes, not a usual route for Aidan O’Brien’s Derby horses, but as such emphasising the rush they have been under to get a run into him. He could only finish sixth in the race and, whilst plenty were quick to write him off and put it all down to hype, I thought it was a promising return after a lengthy break where he has clearly had his issues. He got himself worked up at the start and was incredibly keen in the first couple of furlongs, pulling Moore’s arms out in the saddle. He was then checked off in his run entering the straight and Ryan Moore wasn’t hard on him thereafter, for all he did plug on okay into sixth. The Dante was not the be all and end all, more a means to an end. We have seen O’Brien bring Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy back from much worse performances before landing the Derby after all. He clearly has plenty of talent but also plenty of issues, and you would worry that he is down the pecking order on jockey bookings – no surprise out in stall 19! His stamina too would be a slight  concern over this trip and worsening ground too, and I would have him pegged as more of a ten-furlong type.

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