Thursday 28th March 2024
Since the release of our 2024 Flat Horses To Follow last week, it didn’t take long for us to see some of our prospects step back onto a racecourse with a trio of runners lining up this past weekend.
With two runners on the artificial surfaces at Wolverhampton and Newcastle on Saturday and across the Irish sea at Naas we saw another on the turf on the Sunday.
So how did they run and what can we take from their respective performances?
LEAP ABROAD (2nd of 8 – Wolverhampton 23rd March)
A fantastic start under 7lb claimer Owen Lewis who managed to settle the five-year-old into second for the majority of the race. Travelling on the inside, he stuck on despite being pressed by runners in the middle of the track. He showed plenty of grit and determination but couldn’t quite hold on to first spot and fell into second in the final few strides, beaten by the eventual winner, the George Boughey-trained Navello.
What next?
Full steam ahead to Newmarket looks the most probable destination for this Middleham Park runner. Having claimed back-to-back fourth-placed finishes in two very competitive handicaps at Newmarket in April and May of 2023, it’d be no surprise to see him aimed at the same contests once again and I’d be very inclined to think he will have a strong part to play. Unlike last season, he will have the advantage of two all-weather starts which should aid his fitness. He is now significantly lower in the ratings (81) than he was when starting his turf campaign in 2023 (88) and he has plenty in his favour to kick off his turf campaign in impressive style.
ELEGANT ERIN (5th of 10 – Newcastle 23rd March)
Out the back for most of the contest until around one-and-a-half furlongs out, she made up ground quickly and impressively to get into serious contention. Despite finishing in fifth spot, she wasn’t far away and finished only one-and-a-quarter lengths behind the eventual winner.
Perhaps she had too much to do or exerted too much energy in order to make up lost ground, but she showed marked improvement from her previous run earlier in the month. She will strip even fitter for this effort and, with the handicapper dropping her 1lb for her most recent result, that will also aid her chances.
What next?
With a possible fitness edge over her rivals who may be making their seasonal return, she could be primed for a bold run when returning to turf. With both Beverley and Pontefract hosting fixtures in April, both tracks at which she has solid, winning form, it wouldn’t be a shock if she were to head to either course next month with a very lively chance.
HURRICANE IVOR (10th of 16 – Naas 24th March)
The seven-year-old was quickly away before being dropped back into mid division and, without completely settling, didn’t look fully comfortable; the fact he was caught out wide on such a tight track wasn’t going to help his chances either. He looked as if he may have thrown down a challenge up the centre of the course when passing the two-furlong marker but found very little in the closing stages, not being able to catch his rivals and fading close home.
Although he finished nearer last than first, it is safe to say the outcome didn’t come as a surprise. Rifling through the formbook, he has never finished in the first half of the field in four starts over seven furlongs and three outings at Naas. With both the trip and the course seemingly against him, he can be forgiven this run.
What next?
It will be very much a ‘watching brief’ when it comes to Jessica Harrington’s runner but key things to take note of going forward are; distance, to be seen at his best he’ll need either a five- or six-furlong trip, and course, going well previously at venues such as The Curragh or Cork. If you see him line up with both course and distance preferences in his favour, then that could be the day he strikes.
LOOK AHEAD:
The Dubai World Cup:
The Japanese head to Meydan in their droves for ‘Super Saturday’, with Forever Young one of the supporting members on a fantastic card.
His aim is the Kentucky Derby, and a win in this race would qualify him for the Run for the Roses stateside in May. He ground out a win in the Saudi Derby when just getting up by a short head, and with a better run this time he should face less drama in the run.
The opposition is strong however, with Ballydoyle’s Henry Adams heading the field of contenders. He’s a fine horse in his own right – winner of the Group 3 Tyros (albeit the form doesn’t look particularly strong there) and fourth placed finishes in the Lagadere and Dewhurst would give him a live chance in this. Whether he’ll go on the dirt is a different challenge though, a question which some of the other contenders don’t have to answer.
Our ante-post tip for the Kentucky Derby is a warm order for this contest, but from stall 13 he won’t want to be too far back if he’s to come home in front. A big performance here and he should be spot on for the Kentucky Derby.
Another of our ante-post tips, Auguste Rodin, also takes his first step on an ambitious, globe-trotting campaign as he is set to line up in the valuable Dubai Sheema Classic. Beaten on juvenile debut in 2022 and on seasonal return in the 2000 Guineas last term, it is perhaps worth noting that he often improves for his first run. However, with a pot worth almost £5million, it is unlikely master trainer Aidan O’Brien will leave him short here. Ballydoyle’s Point Lonsdale is set to join his stablemate and will likely play the role of pacemaker on the front end.
Liberty Island will be a tough nut to crack though, a winner of four Grade 1s in her native Japan, and perhaps her best piece of form is chasing home the mighty Equinox in the Japan Cup. Despite not having the best run through the race, she still got within four lengths of the world’s highest rated racehorse and that would make her the one to beat here. Fellow Japanese mare Stars On Earth must also merit respect, just a length behind the reopposing rival in the Japan Cup, and runner-up in the Arima Kinen last time. Arima Kinen winner Do Deuce runs in the race prior, the Dubai Turf, and her form could receive a timely boost. Emily Upjohn also makes her long-waited return for the Gosden team, last seen blowing out in the King George at Ascot; although it is worth noting she did the same in 2022, before returning with an emphatic victory on her next start. All in all, it is a top-class race worth of its lucrative prize money and hopefully Auguste Rodin can run a big race to set up his four-year-old campaign.
Entries:
GREATGADIAN (4:40 Newcastle – Friday)
He was expected to win with relative ease in a race over this course and distance just over a fortnight ago but failed to reel in the eventual winner. He now steps up in grade and returns to Newcastle for a tilt at the All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap. A higher draw should be of benefit now coming down the near side but with a much greater level of opposition this looks a much tougher test. Could potentially sneak into the money if some of the main protagonists fail to deliver but likely to find one or two too good. Don’t be quick to rule him out with the turf season looming if he doesn’t impress here.
ONE LOOK (1:45 Cork – Saturday)
Over in Ireland, the first of our three-year-olds makes their return in the form of Paddy Twomey’s One Look. The breathtaking Goffs Million winner is likely to be a warm order for the Auction Race staged over seven furlongs at Cork on Saturday, on what is just her second career start. It looks a good opportunity to make her return in a fairly weak contest and should set her up nicely for a crack at one of the mile classics.
AMERICAN AFFAIR (4:45 Musselburgh - Saturday)
I was convinced the main aim for him this season was going to be another crack at one of the major sprint handicaps at Ayr in September, however I wouldn’t rule out this Scottish based four-year-old going close on his seasonal return. We know he’ll handle the softer ground, so conditions won’t be an issue, and although trainer Jim Goldie has three entered in the race, American Affair looks to be the first string based on jockey bookings. If he is fit and primed after his winter break, then it would come as no shock to see him go close.