Friday 3rd May 2024

We are back with the Weekly Watch as we approach Guineas weekend, so strap yourselves in, there is plenty for us to get stuck into.

Let us start off with a recap of results over the past week since our latest update and they have been fairly mixed if we are being honest. Let us start with the good news first, and that is Leap Abroad’s victory at Leicester. After paying the price for drifting across the track at Windsor, Paul and Oliver Cole’s five-year-old again suffered from a horse not keeping a true line, but this time it was a rival. Keen early, he was hampered by the eventual second but kept on gamely under pressure to just do enough and notch his first win of the campaign. Up 3lbs for that success, I would not be surprised to see him upped in class again as he does tend to perform best in big fields. He finished fourth in a Class 3 6f handicap on Lockinge Day at Newbury last term, and I would not be surprised to see him go back there from a 4lb lower mark than last year.

On the same day, Tacarib Bay was disappointing at Haydock, never able to get a clear run but ultimately never on terms or put into the race. He was eased thereafter once the chance was gone and has been dropped 2lbs to a mark of 101. That was the first blot in his copybook at Haydock, a track he previously had a good record at, and they could even go back there up in trip for the Silver Bowl Handicap given he has placed second in a Group 3 over that track and trip. At Navan, Caught U Looking faced a stiff task on return after seven months off having to carry a penalty up against unexposed fillies. She made her challenge just under two-furlongs out but just lacked the turn of foot of the others who were receiving weight all round. She did get the trip well though, and will come on for the run, but perhaps she just needs a bit of cut in the ground to be seen to best effect.

The beautifully bred Lautrec was bitterly disappointing on return at Chelmsford on Thursday, unable to land the short odds up in trip. Pestered on the lead and doing far too much in front early, the front pair went at it from a long way out and ultimately paid the price, fading tamely and setting the race up for the others. It is too early to suggest he didn’t see out the trip, and he does hold an entry in the Dante Stakes, and it will be interesting to see where connections go now with that run under his belt.

Now on we go then to the upcoming entries and whilst it doesn’t seem right to talk about anything other than the two Classics on offer this weekend at Newmarket, let us start off with a pair of runners at Thirsk first. The Thirsk Hunt Cup is a race that has often gone to a northern trainer, and the new partnership of John and Sean Quinn try Titan Rock in a hood in this competitive handicap. Disappointing on the All-Weather over the winter, he should appreciate this return to turf with three of his four victories coming on grass. The six-year-old was a staying-on second on his only visit to this track last September before then rallying to be beaten just a head up to a mile at Ayr on his next start. Those two performances came from a 3lb higher mark and this step up in trip should suit. Elegant Erin is turned out quickly once again for the next race and is on a continuously sliding mark, now 4lbs below her last winning mark. Although slightly below form last time, she suffered from a wide trip and could never get involved. She will appreciate any more rain that falls on the track, but her style of racing means she will need everything to fall right in such a big field from stall 1.

Now we get to the matter at hand and the two Classics, as we have two runners in the 2000 Guineas and three in 1000 Guineas. Starting with the colts, and it is hard not to be extremely excited about City Of Troy, who is arguably one of Coolmore’s greatest ever two-year-olds. All the talk from the Ballydoyle camp is that he has wintered extremely well and is working the house down, and they have put their money where their mouth is by having the Justify colt as their sole representative. Electric on his step up to Group 2 company at Newmarket for the Superlative Stakes, drawing right away from a strong field, and again dazzling in the Dewhurst, he was much the best of these as a juvenile and if he has trained on then he will be almost impossible to beat. That is an ‘if’ though, as there has been a sway of negativity surrounding Justify progeny as three-year-olds going around of late. Although this may just be some wanting to find any way to get City Of Troy beat, there is no smoke without fire and the stats are a little worrisome. Justify two-year-olds are 10.98% Stakes winners to runners whilst three-year-olds are 4.58% and the likes of Gasper De Lemos, Capulet and Fleetingly have all been beat on reappearance. However, all of Aidan’s have needed the run and Justify has had plenty of three-year-old Stakes performers in the US so perhaps it is not too much to be concerned about just yet. Sometimes there are horses who are just special, and hopefully City Of Troy can produce something out of the ordinary on Saturday. He looks versatile in terms of how the race can pan out, with a perfect mixture of speed, stamina and pace so how others try to beat him is anyone’s guess.

Whilst the Ballydoyle camp are plenty confident about their star colt’s chances here, Richard Hannon has been even more vocal on Rosallion, already crowning him the best he has ever trained. A winner of the ultra-strong Pat Eddery Stakes (Ancient Wisdom and Alyanaabi well back) he bounced back from Goodwood disappointment to land the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. Although still a little keen early, he was able to cover up at the rear before flying home down the centre of the track from an unpromising position. He has electric speed and if this turns into a test of speed, he may have the edge over just about anything in this field. He should stay this trip despite being by Blue Point, as he is out of a half-sister to Queen Anne winner Triple Time, but whether he has the high-class cruising speed over the distance that City Of Troy has is doubtful. The forecast rain would also be a slight concern, below par in testing conditions at Goodwood, and he will be seen to best effect if the surface remains quick.

The reputation of ante-post angles could be emboldened or in tatters after this weekend, with two of our tips running within 24 hours of each other.  

As always with ante-post betting, we’ve done well to get both of them there in one piece (he says taking credit for some good work done by their trainers!) Forever Young has had to win again at Meydan to seal his place in the Kentucky Derby, and Fallen Angel came through a good piece of work on the Rowley Mile on Craven Day to cement her place in the 1000 Guineas.  

So – Forever Young – what chance? Well, he was put up at 16/1 following his narrow win in the Saudi Derby, when we guessed he’d travel to Meydan to run in the UAE Derby. He did so and won impressively, powering down the straight late on to seal the deal. He comes here with a live chance and a decent draw in gate 11. The concern I have is that he won’t handle the kickback, so if the surface is lively he’ll want to be wide which might give his rivals first run on him. Of those rivals, Sierra Leone, Just A Touch and Stronghold look the likeliest dangers.

The second Classic of the season then sees Fallen Angel hope to justify favouritism on the Rowley Mile. She’s been steadily backed since we advised her at 8/1 and the race has cut up a bit, with a few falling by the wayside. She’s got good form, plenty of class and the right trainer for this contest – and it would be a big moment for Too Darn Hot in his first season with three-year-olds to have the winner of a Classic. The filly continued to improve at a rate of knots through her juvenile campaign, landing the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes in fine fashion to close the campaign. Always up on the pace to press the keen-running Ylang Ylang, she kicked on two furlongs out with Vespertilio. Although headed in the final furlong, she showed a determined attitude to again push on and was well on top at the line, the pair clear of the field. That form makes her the one to beat here and she looks to have trained on nicely, following a public gallop at Newmarket a fortnight ago.

Onto Ylang Ylang, and just like the 2000 Guineas, Aidan O’Brien relies on just the one hope in a real vote of confidence. It is actually quite surprising that Ballydoyle haven’t entered a pacemaker in here like they did in the Fillies’ Mile as she seemed to need every yard of the trip that day off a fast gallop and does look a true stayer rather than a speed horse. She ran too bad to be true in the Moyglare to take that form literally but whether she can keep with them here is the main question mark. She is no doubt a top-class filly who should develop even further this season, and we would be happy to see her staying on late into the places to set her up for a potential crack at the Oaks.

Despite racing keenly early, Regal Jubilee travelled through the Fred Darling Stakes perhaps the best of the six but was just ran down by Marco Botti’s Folgaria on the outer. She began to come back at the winner again close up to the line and left the impression that she will appreciate the step back up to a mile as a winner over the trip as a juvenile. Connections will be doing the rain dance and hoping the thunderstorms hit the track, as any soft in the description would give her a right chance here. She will likely stay further in time too, so the greater the stamina test the better for her on Sunday.

Elsewhere on Sunday we also have the first of the juveniles from our two-year-old focus set to make their debut, with William Buick jocked up on Symbol Of Honour in the lucrative novice stakes. His stablemate has the benefit of a run, so it is a positive that Buick has opted for our lad here. The Havana Grey colt is a half-brother to Dragon Symbol and fetched a pretty penny at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sales, being purchased for a whopping 600,000gns, and can hopefully make a promising debut.