Ante-Post Angles
It’s been a rough few weeks for our Ante-Post Angles. Forever Young (advised at 16/1) made it to the Kentucky Derby and was denied by a head. The result was gutting, especially considering the horse was interfered with many times up the straight in a bizarre dodgem-style race to the finish. Still – it’s each-way money, but we’re left with a considerable ‘what if’. If the Japanese decide to come back Stateside for either the Travers (at Saratoga in August) or the Breeders’ Cup Classic then he’ll be of interest once again.
Fallen Angel didn’t run a bad race, but it was disappointing to get a favourite beaten in a Classic, especially as we had the value. She’ll improve for the run but it was a murky old race and whether she heads over to Ireland for the 1,000 Guineas or stays in the UK for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot remains to be seen. She’s surely capable of better, but backing her next time out is surely a risk.
Alas we go on. The next raft of big races comes in June and July – and boy are there some great races in store.
The first to tackle is the Epsom Derby. The fourth Classic of the season, the Derby can make or break a racehorse. Winners of the race write themselves in history forever, and often go on to create legacies with their offspring. Truly – Epsom is the ultimate test of the racehorse. One of the best quotes about horses comes from Federico Tesio: “The Thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby.”
To win a Derby, you need to have everything. Speed to make ground at Tattenham Corner, poise to handle the indelible camber and stamina to see out the thorough test in its entirety. Rarely is the winner of the Derby not the best horse in the race.
There is a considerable pedigree angle to the Classic too. The race is dominated by guaranteed stayers as sires – Deep Impact, Galileo, Frankel, Nathaniel, Sea The Stars et al – all horses who were at their best over a mile and a half and have produced progeny capable of winning these big races. There is one ‘big’ sire yet to have a Derby winner – and we’ll come back to that later.
City Of Troy has it all to do should be bounce back and win this – and as a short-priced favourite he’s a risky proposition. Much has been made in recent weeks about his size (Aidan O’Brien is confident he’s a 16 hand horse!), but I wouldn’t necessarily think that’s the be all and end all – he probably just hasn’t improved from two to three. He’s a risky proposition.
A Dubawi hasn’t won the Derby before, and I can’t see one winning it this year – Arabian Crown has been ruled out and Ancient Wisdom couldn’t get the job done in the Dante. I also don’t trust the form of Ambiente Friendly and can’t see him winning a Derby.
Ballydoyle are going to throw some serious darts at the race given the doubts over City Of Troy, and one of those is surely going to be Los Angeles. The way he won the Derby Trial at Leopardstown was promising, but he appeals more as an Irish Derby horse and the intricacies of Epsom might not suit him. Capulet needs to step up, so the one to back from Ballydoyle is ILLINOIS.
He's a half-brother to Danedream so will love a mile and a half around Epsom and has some top form to his name. In a murky year, his third behind Los Angeles in the Criterium might not be too bad, and he can be excused for a blowout in the Ballysax given Aidan’s are taking a step forward for the run. I don’t think the Lingfield Derby Trial was really his best form, but he comfortably beat the rest of the field and he’ll line up in June. He’s 33/1 which looks massive.
There’s one horse which I recommend an on the day bet wherever he turns up – RIVER TIBER. It looks like he’s going to pop up in the Irish 2,000 Guineas on his seasonal debut, but if he doesn’t he’s very much of interest in either the Commonwealth Cup or St James’s Palace. I’d favour the latter as he does look a miler, but Coolmore haven’t got another one in the race so it looks like a possibility that he might reroute – even though he looks a miler through and through. You can back him at 4/1 for the Irish 2,000 Guineas, or he’s 10’s for the St James’s Palace and 14/1 for the Commonwealth Cup.
Royal Ascot brings some proper contests – in which there is a good value bet to have.
The Prince of Wales’s is always a good race – arguably the best mile and a quarter contest of the season. This year though looks a bit of a mess, with the likes of Mosthadaf, Bay Bridge et al all retiring, so it’s up to the new crop to carry the flag for the quick stayers.
Passenger is the ante-post favourite following an impressive win in the Huxley at Chester where he broke the course record. Despite this, he still has a way to go to mark himself out as a bonafide Group 1 performer, and there are others who can prove they’re up to it.
As much as I love him, you can’t trust Auguste Rodin and whether this trip is his optimum would be a doubt for me. I don’t think Okeechobee has the best form in the book coming into this race and surely Inspiral will have an easier target after a lacklustre reappearance in the Lockinge.
The horse which I think is the solid option and way overpriced is ALFAILA. He only raced twice last year – beating My Prospero and Royal Champion in the York Stakes and running up behind Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg, Nashwa and King Of Steel in the Irish Champion Stakes. He goes well fresh, looks progressive and is too big at 14/1.
The other bet which I’ll be having when betting is available is CONTINUOUS for the Hardwicke Stakes. He’s by Heart’s Cry and as a result is a proper fast ground lover, and this Group 2 looks a natural starting point for him. He has great form from last year and with a few key players looking like they might miss the Royal meeting he has a superb chance. When betting is available I’ll be having a go at him in this soft enough race.
Both of the last two named were featured in our Top-Class Performers section, and we are extremely looking forward to seeing them reappear in the 2024 season.