Royal Ascot 2024 - Day Two
Welcome to the bettrends Royal Ascot Service – analysis and points-based betting advice for every single race at Royal Ascot 2024.
Day Two is perhaps not as star-studded as the opening day of Royal Ascot, however we look treated to an extremely intriguing Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and we tackle the first of our Handicap Breakers races of the week in the Royal Hunt Cup.
2:30 Ascot – The Queen Mary Sakes (Group 2) (WU)
Picking the winner of the opener is never easy but it can help to look at some recent trends. Those drawn higher have tended to perform better and it could well prove profitable to focus on those at that end.
Before we move to that side of the draw, a couple to note from the lower side of the draw are Miss Rascal and Leovanni. Paul and Oliver Cole have had a frightening record this year with their juveniles and the daughter of Havana Gold looks to have all the makings of a top sprinter. She improved nicely to win at Ascot last time out after being beaten at Newmarket, but it is worth noting only 1/12 had previously won at Ascot before winning this. Leovanni wears the colour of new racing powerhouse Wathnan Racing. She, like a lot in this race, was impressive when taking a Maiden Stakes at Nottingham but the second has since run poorly. Karl Burke excels with his two-year-olds, so she warrants respect.
Betty Clover has been an impressive winner on two occasions this campaign. She was only beaten by Running Lion at Salisbury on ground that wouldn’t have suited and reversed the form when landing the Listed Clipper Stakes at York. That is often a good race, and she arrives here with every chance for an inform Eve Johnson-Houghton team. Kassaya is stoutly bred but may be better over further in time for Andrew Balding. Spherical ran a nice race to win at Yarmouth but it somewhat fell apart and she faces a much sterner test this time around.
Wesley Ward is represented by Ultima Grace. She gets the first-time blinkers after obliging at odds of 1/10 on debut. As always, his runners must be respected but it takes a special one to come across the pond and win. Make Haste was really impressive on debut for Diego Das but hasn’t been missed in the market. Any drift could well make her a play but at the current odds she can be passed over. MIGHTY ERIU would be my play for the Gavin Cromwell yard, who already has history in this race, winning it in 2021 with Quick Suzy. MIGHTY ERIU was easy to back on debut but ran a stormer to finish second behind the very well-regarded Tunbridge Wells. Unlike the winner, she had no racecourse experience but showed an excellent attitude to separate the O’Brien pair. Since that run she’s changed hands and is now owned by Qatar Racing, they’ve dropped her back down to five furlongs and she may well run a big race.
bettrends Advice:
MIGHTY ERIU 0.5pts E/W @ 16/1 (Bet365/William Hill, 5 places)
3:05 Ascot – The Queen's Vase (Group 2) (JB2)
The Queen’s Vase staged over just shy of the St Leger trip has often proved a good indicator to the Doncaster classic. Eldar Eldarov was the latest to complete the double in 2022 whilst fellow Leger winner Kew Gardens and three-time Gold Cup winner Stradivarius are also among the recent roll of honour.
Aidan O’Brien hasn’t landed the prize here since Santiago in 2020, but he does have seven wins in the contest and is just one victory shy of tying Sir Henry Cecil’s record in the race. The Master of Ballydoyle goes mobhanded in this year’s renewal with four runners, and ILLINOIS is the pick of Ryan Moore. A Galileo colt out of a Danehill mare, stamina has always looked his forte and he is a half-brother to five-time mile-and-a-half Group 1 winner Danedream and a full brother to Chester Vase winner (and St Leger runner) Venice Beach. He made an impressive winning debut over nine furlongs at the Curragh as a juvenile and stuck to his task well when third on ground plenty soft enough for him in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on just his second career start. Derby third Los Angeles was the winner that day whilst the French Guineas fifth and Dee Stakes runner-up were further back in the field, so the form reads well. He was then incredibly disappointing when beaten in the Ballysax Stakes on return, but didn’t look remotely fit for the return, and bounced back with a fair effort when second in the Lingfield Derby Trial despite not appearing to handle the track all that well. He was beaten over four lengths that day, but the winner was Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly so it is far from poor form. This step up in trip should suit, he is the joint highest-rated in the field and Ryan Moore is in the saddle.
Fellow Ballydoyle resident Highbury couldn’t have been more impressive last time, comfortably powering to a seven-and-a-half length success in a Leopardstown maiden (of which the second and fourth have won since). Another son of Galileo, he looks open to any amount of progress following just two career starts but he does have form to overturn with the reopposing Birdman (back to him later). Grosvenor Square landed the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes by a wide margin on heavy ground to close his juvenile campaign (although the form isn’t strong) and was subsequently sent off favourite for the Chester Vase on return. Whilst he may have needed the run and bumped into two potentially smart types, he was comfortably beaten, and the quick ground doesn’t promise to suit. He is a half-brother to 2020 winner Santiago though and should appreciate the step up in trip. The Equator steps up markedly in trip here but did shape last time as if this is the sort of stamina test he wants, albeit the extra distance will have to bring about significant improvement.
Back to Birdman then and Jessica Harington’s gelding only made his debut in April of this year but is two from two and actually has the beating of Highbury on their Cork run, both making their debut that day. He then built on that debut effort with a commanding victory in Listed company at Navan last time, pulling away from the field rather comfortably in the end up to 1m5f. The form doesn’t look overly strong for the level, but he did win with a fair bit more in hand than the winning distance suggests. The step up in trip again doesn’t promise to suit on pedigree (out of an Acclamation mare) but he shaped as if it would be no trouble the last twice. The quicker ground would be the only lingering doubt.
Meydaan looked potentially very smart when winning on debut at Newcastle last year but has been a little disappointing this season. He did land the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood last time but was a slightly fortunate winner with the runner-up unlucky to be denied a clear run. The step up in trip is intriguing but he looks held by ILLINOIS on their Lingfield meeting. Andrew Balding’s Mina Rashid looked an extremely strong stayer when keeping on to win a Chester maiden last time after they went off too quick out in front (and may even need further in time). That form does leave him short of what is required here in better company though.
Bettrends Advice:
ILLINOIS 1pt WIN @ 9/4 (Bet365)
3.45 Ascot – The Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (JC)
14 take to the track for this one-mile fillies and mares race and Laurel looks to be a real contender here. Trained by John & Thady Gosden, this five-year-old mare had been in red hot form back in 2022, taking comfortable wins in novice company at Newmarket and Kempton before hitting the crossbar in the Group 1 Sun Chariot behind Fonteyn at the former track. She only raced twice last season, taking the win in impressive style on her seasonal return in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton before disappointing when only tenth in the Lockinge, offering little. She will likely better that effort here back against her own sex but off the back of a 13- month absence, it’s hard to have too much confidence, especially as the yard’s runners have often needed their first run.
Ocean Jewel has a lot going for her. Trained by Willie McCreery, this four-year-old has been impressive. She took the Group 3 Ballycorus at Leopardstown in July and while subsequent efforts didn’t go her way, she looked much improved on her first start of this term when she took the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes at the Curragh in some style, ahead of the reopposing Rogue Millenium. 11 of the last 12 winners of this were four-year-olds and she should go well again here, although does carry a penalty for that latest success. Breege was a strong winner of the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom last time out, holding on well to get the win ahead of Royal Dress (third) and Running Lion (eighth), both of whom will be contesting this race as well. Winning this may be beyond the filly trained by John & Sean Quinn but she could be a great option from an each way perspective as she is uber consistent. Gregarina scored in the Group 3 Athasi at the Curragh last month, besting French Listed winner Doom, although would perhaps want softer ground than is expected.
Preference though will be for ROGUE MILLENIUM. Trained by Joseph Patrick O’Brien, this five-year-old daughter of Dubawi won this race last year. She raced very well throughout, pushing on to take the win in the final stages ahead of Random Harvest and Prosperous Voyage. Things have been a bit hit and miss for the mare of late however as she hasn’t won since last year. She stepped up into Group 1 company and was largely unsuccessful, although the best of her efforts (a second to Tahiyra in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in September) is perhaps the single strongest piece of form in this race. She switched from Tom Clover’s yard to her current one for £1,650,000 after her final start of last term and on her first start for present connections she was ultimately unsuccessful again, third of eight behind Ocean Jewel at the Curragh last month. That can be excused however as things just didn’t go her way the whole race and she got pinned against the rail, unable to get out and leaving her with too much to do late on. It was a run that showed promise though and she should do better here with that run under her belt, granted more luck in-running.
bettrends Advice:
ROGUE MILLENIUM 1pt WIN @ 100/30 (Bet365/William Hill)
4:25 Ascot – The Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (JB2)
The Prince Of Wales’s Stakes is absolutely fascinating this year, and perhaps is littered with more questions than answers surrounding the main protagonists.
Let us first start then with the enigma that is Auguste Rodin, a Group 1-winning two-year-old who won both the Epsom and Irish Derby before landing the Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf in open company. On the face of it, he has a fantastic profile for this contest and the best of his top-class successes make him by far the best horse in this race. However, it is hard to forget just how many shockers are littered between those victories too. A blowout in the Guineas and King George blotted his copybook as a three-year-old, and he ran no sort of race in the Sheema Classic on return despite being very well-backed. Perhaps the most worrying though isn’t his bad defeats, as we know he blows hot and cold, but the fact that he seemed to run his race last time in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but was firmly put in his place and brushed aside by White Birch. Granted, John Joseph Murphy’s Derby third has improved massively from three to four but it is Auguste Rodin’s first real defeat when he had no excuses and seemingly ran up to his best. His Irish Champions Stakes victory is the best piece of form in the race, both Luxembourg and King Of Steel winning Group 1s since (although it is worth remembering he benefitted from some team tactics that day), and if he runs to that level he is the most likely winner. He will appreciate the forecasted quicker ground, but at the short prices it is just too much of a risk. The Ballydoyle team will likely want to set a fast gallop here to test the stamina of Inspiral (who we will get onto) and that is likely why Hans Andersen takes his place.
Similarly, the other ‘big gun’ in the race Inspiral also has plenty of questions to answer here. The five-year-old mare was denied just a neck in the opening Queen Anne Stakes at this meeting last year and went on to land three Group 1s through the season. However, she was given no chance from her position at Newbury in the Lockinge Stakes last time as she was a well beaten fourth after being waited with out the back. She should come on massively for the run here, as Gosden’s have tended to be left short for their return run this season. The trainer has opted for the longer race here, and she does appear to be better with a bend here at Ascot rather than on the straight track as she can use her electric turn of foot. However, whilst she won over this distance at Santa Anita with a flying dive down the outsider at the Breeders’ Cup, getting this trip at Ascot is whole different proposition. This is a big task for Kieran Shoemark, who has come in for plenty of criticism since taking this job, but she could be extremely dangerous here from stall ten if kept wide before unleashing her speed late down the outside. She is no doubt the quickest horse in the race but does harbour those stamina doubts on a stiffer track.
With enough questions about those at the head of the market then, this opens the race up for an each-way selection who can take advantage if those at shorter odds falter. French raider Horizon Dore proved mightily progressive last term as he won four straight in impressive style over this trip before a solid third in the Champion Stakes. He was well beaten out in Hong Kong and had a quiet start to the season but has bounced back in Group 1 company the last twice. He placed fifth in a bunched finish in the Prix Ganay (although the form of that looks ropey at best now) before just denied in the final strides in the Prix d’Ispahan following a powerful last-to-first finish. Whilst plenty of his form has been on easier ground, his speed has often looked slightly blunted by conditions and he should actually appreciate this quicker surface. He may not quite have the class of some of these to win, but if his run is timed right, he could just catch a few of these out with his finishing kick. Fellow French raider Blue Rose Cen was further back in fifth at Longchamp last time and just appeared a little outpaced off a steady gallop, so this extra furlong should suit. The four-year-old completed the French Guineas and Prix de Diane double last year and, whilst her form dropped off in the mid part of the season, she bounced back with a victory in the Prix de l’Opera. As we mentioned with Big Rock yesterday though, the jury is still out on new trainer Maurizio Guarnieri, whose last Group 1 success came in 2010 and has a career strike rate of just 9%. I am not sure she wants the ground quite this quick either. Royal Rhyme is a potential big improver, but all of his best form has come on soft ground whilst Lord North won this race in 2020 but looks a little short of this level now at eight years old.
That then leaves us with ALFLAILA who makes his seasonal debut for Owen Burrows here and whilst the lack of a run may be a worry, it is likely by design for a horse who has won first time out in all of the last three seasons so clearly goes well fresh. The son of Dark Angel proved mightily progressive in the back end of his three-year-old campaign, winning three on the bounce including two Group 3s. The five-year-old then returned last year with an impressive victory in the York Stakes, quickening up smartly from the rear to take down My Prospero in a top-class performance. He was beaten just over three lengths by Auguste Rodin when last seen in the Irish Champion Stakes but was massively unsuited by the way the race developed. He was uncharacteristically outpaced early after being slowly away and was left with plenty to do as they entered the straight. He caught the eye late though as began to really motor along and finished quickly under minimal pressure. Quick ground promises to suit, as does this track, and he could cause an upset to the main protagonists here with a late run, just as Shadwell’s Mostahdaf did here last year.
bettrends Advice:
ALFLAILA 0.5pts E/W @ 9/1 (Various)
5:05 Ascot – The Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (JB2)
This is perhaps the pinnacle of mile handicaps in British racing and the Royal Hunt Cup has certainly got a roll of honour to match; multiple Group winner Real World immediately springs to mind!
Getting straight into the numbers and it’s significant to see that eight of the last ten winners have been four-year-olds. That represents a big shift towards horses who are relatively unexposed and, in theory, ahead of the handicapper. There are 11 four-year-olds that take their place in this year’s line-up and, due to the prominence of age in the recent trends, they must merit serious consideration. The Wathnan duo of Beshtani and Real Gain are the shortest price of the age group with the market apparently weary of the powerful new owners.
However, with youth does not necessarily come inexperience as 11 of the last 12 winners had at least eight previous runs and ten of those had at least three previous victories to their name. That’s bad news for the lightly raced Wathnan duo (although both do have that required winning experience) as well as Saeed bin Suroor’s Wild Tiger, who has raced just five times. Experience over the mile has also proven important, with eight of the last 12 winners having notched up a previous victory at the trip. There are six in the field who have yet to win over this trip including Chesham Stakes winner Holloway Boy (winless since that seven-furlong victory) and Streets Of Gold, who steps up in trip for the first time here.
In terms of weights and measures, whilst we previously wanted to find one towards the bottom of the weights, eight of the last twelve winners have carried at least 9st and no more than 9st 3lb so this is where we find our sweet spot. This group of horses begins with Perotto and goes down to Wild Tiger in the racecard.
It’s interesting to see that nine of the last 12 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup had run no more than 60 days ago, suggesting that long-term plots and horses who have been saved for the contest don’t often pan out better than those horses who are coming into this in proven good form with race fitness on their side. There are just three here who have a longer break to overcome with The Gatekeeper and Padishakh not seen since the day of the Lincoln at Doncaster 88 days ago whilst Perotto makes his seasonal debut after last seen winning at the Shergar Cup here last August. Additionally, arriving in good form has proved a positive in recent years and eight of the past 12 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup arrived here on the back of a top four finish.
The draw bias on the straight track at Ascot has always been one of life’s biggest puzzles to solve, but there seems to be a strong trend that has emerged in the Royal Hunt Cup of high draws having a good record. 14 of the last 18 winners have hailed from a double figure stall, although it is worth noting that two of those lower drawn winners have come in the last three years. However, in both of those years the lower drawn winner came home alone on their side and the next three home in 2021 and the next ten home in 2023 were all drawn high.
In these big-field, ultra-competitive handicaps at the Royal Meeting the saying often goes you are looking for a “Group horse in a handicap”. However, we are looking to unearth a potential Group level performer rather than one who has already performed at the highest level, and just one of the past 12 winners had previously won a Group race (Dark Vision in 2020), meaning we would like a horse who has yet to show their hand to the handicapper. There are just two previous Group winners amongst this year’s field; Sean landed a Group 3 in Italy last year before joining Jamie Osborne whilst Tempus won a pair of Group 3 contests over a mile back in 2022.
Finally, course form has also proven useful when picking out winners of the Royal Hunt Cup and eight of the past 12 winners had at least one run at Ascot prior to success here, three of those winning before at the track.
After outlining the trends above and running these on the entire 30-strong Royal Hunt Cup field for our Handicap Breakers Service, there are four who lead the way and make up our shortlist. The first of those is Talis Evolvere for Richard Hannon, who has proved mightily progressive in 2024. After showing a fine attitude to get up from consistent yardstick Urban Sprawl in December at Wolverhampton, the four-year-old has won two of his next seven starts and has finished outside of the top three just once in that time (when not appearing to stay ten furlongs at Lingfield). The son of Awtaad landed the lucrative All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap at Newcastle in March and has carried that form over to the turf the last twice, filling the third spot in strong handicaps at Newbury. A tough and consistent operator who will go in any conditions, he is reliable to run his race and conditional Joe Leavy has built up a good partnership with him.
King’s Code was back in sixth in that valuable Newcastle handicap in March and drops back down to a mile here after running over further on the turf of late. He chased home Botanical (who is Wolferton bound) when second over the extended ten furlongs at York but has been a little disappointing in his last two starts. However, his Epsom run, although well beaten in ninth, reads a lot better now as plenty of the horses around him have since boosted the form; the fifth a winner at York and the 12th a winner at Chester. He was perhaps poorly positioned when fourth at Chester last time but this drop back to a strongly run mile should suit.
Next up we have Ian Williams’ Silent Film, who does go extremely well here around Ascot. The New Approach gelding was previously with Charlie Appleby when in the ownership of Godolphin, rated as high as 105 in 2022 following a brace of wins in the Middle East. He was denied just a neck by Fresh in a seven-furlong handicap here at the course in that year from a mark of 100 and last year ran a fine race at the Royal Meeting from that same mark to finish eighth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes on his stable debut for Williams. He was forced to switch but ran on nicely in the closing stages and again ran well here in the Shergar Cup Mile in August. He was beaten over three lengths in fourth, but the run reads better than the bare result as he was slowly away and left with plenty to do out the rear but stuck to his task well. Since then, he has landed a Local Group 2 in Hungary before finishing second in a handicap out in Meydan at the turn of the year. The six-year-old returned off the back of a break on British soil with a good third at Epsom over ten furlongs behind a handicap blot of Harry Eustace (who has won again easily since and is now rated 17lbs higher), whilst the runner-up and fourth have run well since to give the form a good look to it. He was slightly uncomfortable around Tattenham Corner that day too and lost ground, so the effort can be marked up somewhat. This drop back in trip to a strongly run mile over Ascot’s straight track will really play to his strengths, and he could look overpriced from a mark of 98.
Last but not least, rounding out our shortlist we have Marco Botti’s DAYSOFOURLIVES, who has proved steadily progressive over the past 12 months. The lightly raced four-year-old kept on well to force a dead heat with Ouzo (since a two-time winner in Meydan) here over a mile last August on just his fifth career start and again ran well here when third to Metal Merchant and Qatar Derby winner Jeff Koons, despite not having the ideal run through the race. He signed off the campaign with a victory at Chelmsford over further, overcoming keenness, and was again plenty keen on return when third on the Rowley Mile in a competitive handicap. He did the best of those in the stands’ side group and hit the line strongly despite his early freshness, so it was a positive performance. It was a little disappointing that he was the first under pressure at Newmarket over further last time, but he plugged on well into second. He has a slightly unorthodox head carriage, and can need coaxing into a race, so a first-time visor could help in that respect. With just the nine career starts, this son of Churchill still has plenty of scope for improvement from a mark of 97. He is the selection here.
bettrends Advice:
DAYSOFOURLIVES 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 (Bet365, 6 places)
5.40 Ascot - The Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies' Handicap) (Class 2) (JB)
The penultimate race of day two looks to be a bit of a minefield with a strong 25-runner field set to battle it out for the Kensington Palace Stakes.
The Saeed bin Suroor-trained Summer Of Love currently heads up the market after a strong start to her career after two wins from three starts, albeit with all three runs coming on the All-Weather. Both of those wins came over seven furlongs, and she now steps back up to a mile. She brings plenty of potential to this, so it’ll be interesting to see how she performs conceding experience to many of these.
Doha had her first run of the season last month at Haydock, finishing second of five. She was narrowly beaten by a neck and now drops back to a mile, the same distance as her last success. If she can produce a similar performance or better, it would come as no surprise if she were to be in contention come the closing stages on Wednesday.
It has been a strong start to the season for the Simon and Ed Crisford-trained Twirling after a third on seasonal return before recording a success at Doncaster last time out. That win did come on good to soft ground so the quicker conditions might be a slight hinderance. Ryan Moore is on board though and he’s currently operating at a 50% strike rate for the past two weeks so that booking is favourable.
With the race appearing to be very wide open, it presents us with an opportunity for some each-way value and the selection is the Hughie Morrison-trained AZAHARA PALACE. The four-year-old daughter of Adaay ran on well to secure a one length victory at Leicester last time out and despite the 7lb rise, we’re expecting her to produce another big performance on Wednesday. The conditions shouldn’t be an issue having won on good to firm before, albeit in a slightly lower class. With plenty of places to be on offer for this race, she gives us a good chance to see a return.
bettrends Advice:
AZAHARA PALACE 0.5pts E/W @ 16/1 (Bet365, 5 places)
6:15 Ascot – The Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (JB2)
We close Day Two of Royal Ascot with a fast and furious five furlongs for the two-year-olds in the Windsor Castle, a race that has thrown up plenty of smart winners in recent years including Big Evs and Little Big Bear in just the last two years.
The ever-powerful duo of Moore and O’Brien have won this race three times since 2015, and No Nay Never colt Treasure Isle is the pick of Ryan here. By the same sire as their last winner Little Big Bear, he was too keen out the blocks on debut and looked to just tire late on behind a stronger stayer (the winner since third in the Group 3 Marble Hill over six). He improved on that debut when again bounding out quickly as he made all to an impressive victory at Naas (a race won by Coventry winner River Tiber in 2023). He did have the experience edge on the rest of the field though, despite still looking plenty green, and the form doesn’t look overly strong with the third beaten on all three starts since. He is entitled to improve with each start though as he still appears immature, but that keenness would be a worry over a stiff five furlongs at Ascot. He is rapid out of the gates and should get a good start but could just tie up late if still as free going. Stablemate Celtic Chieftain did well to win in the circumstances on debut at Navan earlier this month when overcoming inexperience, showing a nice turn of foot to get up late. He left the impression he will come on for that debut and shouldn’t be overlooked solely based on jockey bookings.
Richard Fahey has had some smart juvenile winners so far this season, so we have to take note when he claims that Shadow Army is the best of the bunch, especially when he was no doubt purchased for a pretty penny by Wathnan Racing following his debut victory. The Showcasing colt set a quick time when winning at York despite looking a work in progress in the first half of the race as he began to learn his job. He pulled nicely away with the experienced runner-up Francisco’s Piece, who has since landed a Listed event in France, so the form reads well. He was slow out the stalls that day, which is the only slight worry, as he wouldn’t want to find himself too far back early in this big field. Kodiac colt Hawaiian created a taking impression when winning a strong race on debut and that form was given a massive boost on the opening day with Rashabar winning the Coventry at a crazy price and Star Anthem running a lovely race to finish eighth beaten just two lengths. He ran no sort of race in the Listed National Stakes last time, but the testing conditions was a plausible excuse, and this will be more suitable. It was far from an ideal prep but a return to the form of that debut victory would put him bang there, although his price has tumbled since the events of the Coventry.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s Cotai Glory gelding Pont Neuf is now two from two following victories at Kempton and Sailsbury, and that latter success is one of the better pieces of form in the race. He showed a fine attitude to give 9lbs to impressive next-time-out winner Kassaya whilst also giving 4lbs to Woodcote runner-up Megalithic. He looks to have plenty of stamina for this trip, which will serve him well here at Ascot, but the only question mark is the quicker ground, that latest victory arriving on a soft surface. The trainer excels with her two-year-olds though and did land this race with Chipotle in 2021.
Seven of the past 12 winners have been priced at 12/1 or higher, and in such a wide-open and competitive juvenile contest it can pay to take a swing at one at a bit of a price; last year just one of the first six home was priced shorter than 18/1. The eye is immediately drawn to AIN’T NOBODY for Kevin Ryan, who won this race in 2012 and had the runner-up in 2015. The Sands Of Mali colt looked incredibly professional when winning in a good time at Carlisle on debut despite actually conceding experience to the runner-up. He broke and travelled well, and the front pair pulled nicely clear of the third who was well-backed for top juvenile trainer Karl Burke. That race has actually thrown up some smart horses in recent years too; Dragon Stakes winner Kylian was runner-up last year, Doncaster £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes and Listed Two Year Old Trophy victor Cold Case was second the year prior and Korker won in 2021. He should improve for the quicker surface here and has been drawn in stall 27, which should prove a positive getting a lead from a quick American speedster next door and extreme draws have had the best record in the last six years.
bettrends Advice:
AIN’T NOBODY 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 (Bet365, 5 places)
NAP: ILLINOIS
NB: ROGUE MILLENIUM