Punchestown Festival Service DAY ONE
Hello and welcome to the bettrends Punchestown Festival Service – where we will have the trends analysis for the feature race as well as a best bet in a big-field handicap for each day.
5:25 Punchestown – The William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1)
One of the three Grade 1 contests on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival, Cheltenham’s Queen Mother Champion Chase is, unsurprisingly, the best guide to the race. Energumene had won the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham prior to winning each of the past two renewals of this race whilst Sprinter Sacre, the last horse to attempt the double, achieved the same feat in 2013. In all, since 2006, only six Queen Mother winners have run at Punchestown, with five successful, the other pair being Newmill and Master Minded. Captain Guinness took advantage of hot favourite El Fabiolo’s early blow out in this year’s edition, landing a fourth Champion Chase for trainer Henry de Bromhead in the process as Rachel Blackmore became the first female jockey to win the Wednesday feature at Cheltenham.
Since 2003, 15 of the 20 winners of this race had contested the Champion Chase, with both Big Zeb and Sizing Europe having finished runner-up in the feature on day two of the Cheltenham Festival. Chasing home Captain Guinness in March was Gentleman De Mee who stayed on strongly from the back of the last, putting pressure on the eventual winner all the way to the line.
The power of the Willie Mullins stable has been well-documented over the years and indeed never more so than it has this year, as he became the first Irish trainer since Vincent O’Brien to land the British Trainers’ Championship and dominated at all of the major festivals; nine winners at the Dublin Racing Festival, nine at the Cheltenham Festival and winners of the Aintree Grand National, Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup. The master of Closutton has won all the past five renewals of this race and goes for six in a row here in 2024. His dominance has even been shown in the places too, saddling the first and second in four of those years and last year recording a 1-2-3-4. As well as the aforementioned Gentleman De Mee, Mullins also sends Dinoblue, Saint Sam and Dysart Dynamo. Whilst the last three winners have justified short-priced favouritism, don’t discount the second and even third string for Mullins; Un de Sceaux was third favourite in 2018 and second favourite the following year.
We have seen three dual winners of the race in the past 11 renewals, so obviously that trio had winning form in the book by the time they each won their second Champion Chase, but two of those had won the Barberstown Novice Chase at the fixture earlier in their career. Interestingly, Un de Sceaux and Sizing Europe had also won the non-Graded 2m novice hurdle at this fixture, whilst the latter had also won his first three starts over fences at the track. Dinoblue is in fact the only horse in the field to have won over fences at the track, landing the two-mile handicap chase at this fixture last year, whilst Captain Guinness, Banbridge, Dysart Dynamo and Saint Sam have all won over hurdles here at Punchestown.
Whilst it can often prove a negative at the Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, older horses have proven to be successful in the Punchestown Champion Chase, with six double-digit winners since 2004. In all, 22 of the past 26 winners have been aged eight or older. At the other end of the scale, only two six-year-olds have been successful this century and this acts as a negative for the sole six-year-old representative, Fil Dor.
As with many top-class Grade 1 races of this nature, the cream often rises to the top, and just one of the past 15 winners of this race had not previously won a Grade 1 contest. The classier horses have tended to come to the fore and those who have yet to make their mark at the highest level have found life difficult. Just four of the nine in this year’s field have a Grade 1 on their CV, those being Banbridge, Captain Guinness, Gentleman De Mee, and Dinoblue.
We also want to be looking for a positive recent run, as only five winners since 2001 had failed to finish in the top two on their latest start. Of those 17, 14 had won and two of three runners-up had finished second in the Champion Chase.
Seven successive winners between 2012 and 2018 had all won over a longer trip that very season and a further six winners this century had won over further earlier in the campaign. Ash Tree Meadow has landed a brace of Grade 2s this term over the intermediate trip, Banbridge landed the Silviniaco Conti on reappearance and Saint Sam landed the Red Mills Chase on his penultimate start.
Shortlist
CAPTAIN GUINNESS
GENTLEMAN DE MEE
After running the outlined trends on the field, there are two who come out on top and lead the way. The first of those is the Champion Chase winner CAPTAIN GUINNESS, who put in a fine round of jumping and toughed it out well under Rachel Blackmore. A true two-miler, he can jump and travel excellently at the breakneck pace required and, although he did benefit from some fortune with El Fabiolo out of the race early, he fully deserved his first Grade 1. He was well beaten in this race two years ago but has matured into a much more professional animal this term and arrives here on the back of a clear career-best effort. He will relish the spring ground and did chase home Jonbon at Sandown after Cheltenham last year, so the turnaround shouldn’t be a concern.
Joining him atop of the trends table and rounding out our shortlist is the Champion Chase runner-up, GENTLEMAN DE MEE, who will be bidding to reverse the form with his Cheltenham conqueror. The eight-year-old is another who has been waiting for a sound surface, and goes best this time of year, landing the Grade 1 at Aintree as a novice in 2022. Although unusually ridden with restraint at the Cheltenham Festival, we could expect more prominent tactics from Mark Walsh here on a horse that has often forced the pace and made all.
As well as running the trends for the feature race of each day, the bettrends team will also supply analysis and a selection for one of the big-field handicaps on each day of the Punchestown Festival. These 28-runner fields can often fill a punter with dread as they scour the racecard, so hopefully we can help point you in the right direction.
3:05 Punchestown – The Blood-Stock.com Full Circle Series Final Handicap Hurdle
A fantastic new initiative this season, the Full Circle Series offers a valuable pot to the winner and gives a chance to those slightly lower-rated horses, and those from smaller stables, that may have struggled to get a run at the major festivals previously. 28 runners go to post and it is an ultra-competitive contest, but this does mean there is plenty of each-way value.
One that immediately caught the eye was Tom Lacey’s MONTREGARD, in JP McManus’ famous green and gold silks. It shows how well the series has worked, with plenty of British trainers travelling across the Irish Sea in search of the prize, and Tom Lacey himself has three. Stan Sheppard chooses this lightly-raced five-year-old of the trio, and the Lacey yard has been in good form lately with three winners from the yard’s last eight runners. The gelding is a half-brother to recent Cheltenham Festival victor Protektorat, himself a Listed winner as a novice hurdler, and the dam was twice a winner in Listed company in France. An eye-catcher on hurdles debut at Doncaster last February, he raced wide throughout and found himself outpaced over the minimum trip before staying on strongly from the last to take third. He again stuck to his task incredibly well up in trip to win on his second start at Warwick, landing the spoils from horses now rated 107 and 112. He shaped as if he was in dire need of the run when weakening away tamely on return at Newcastle but got back into the winners’ enclosure in first-time cheekpieces in a qualifier for this race. Despite some not so fluent jumping at the business end of things, he showed a great attitude and huge engine to win despite this. The second, Magical King, is a nice horse for Stuart Edmunds and MONTREGARD has been raised just 2lbs for that victory. Cheekpieces are retained and he could have endless scope for improvement off a mark of 106, with a strong gallop to aim at sure to suit this strong stayer if he can brush up his jumping. He would be our each-way selection in an open-looking contest.
If we like MONTREGARD, we must also respect Al Kalila then on a line through that Wetherby qualifier last time. Racing wide towards the rear, Stuart Crawford’s five-year-old kept on well and ran a fine race in the circumstances to be beaten just a length-and-a-half. The pair effectively raced off levels that day once Ben Bromley’s claim is factored in, but Al Kalila must now concede 2lbs with JJ Slevin booked to ride. Stuart Crawford also saddles Paddy’s Milestone, who was last seen finishing fourth on handicap debut to qualify for this contest at Down Royal. That effort can be marked up somewhat though, as he would no doubt have been in contention if not for being badly hampered three from home. He stuck on well under a hands and heels ride and could be well-handicapped from an unchanged mark of 102 having previously shown solid form in maiden hurdles; namely chasing home Haydock Grade 2 winner Now Is The Hour. Jordan Gainford has been booked to ride, and if looking for one at a slightly bigger prices, there have been worse each-way bets than Paddy’s Milestone.
Gavin Cromwell has enjoyed a fine season, and his Lazer Wolf is likely to be popular in the betting. Much more experienced than many in this field, making his hurdles debut almost a year ago, the six-year-old has proved incredibly consistent this term. Finishing outside of the top four just once in his last seven starts, the Getaway gelding finally shed his maiden tag in a Limerick maiden hurdle over two miles last time. Whilst he doesn’t appear to be the most well-handicapped horse in the field from a mark of 121, he steps up markedly in trip here and could find improvement for the extra distance. Another model of consistency has been Dancing Jeremy for James Fahey, with form figures reading 132312 in his last six. The admirable nine-year-old made all to an impressive wide-margin victory in a strong handicap hurdle (Gaoth Chuill in second is now rated 15lbs higher) at Punchestown back in October and was a runaway winner of a handicap chase at Thurles on his penultimate start. He was just narrowly denied last time at Limerick over fences, headed in the shadows of the post, and this honest front-runner should give a bold bid from just a 1lb higher mark.
bettrends Advice:
MONTREGARD E/W
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