Punchestown Festival Service DAY TWO
Hello and welcome to the bettrends Punchestown Festival Service – where we will have the trends analysis for the feature race as well as a best bet in a big-field handicap for each day.
5:25 Punchestown – The Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1)
We are treated to yet another three Grade 1s on day two of the Punchestown Festival, but it is no doubt the Punchestown Gold Cup that takes centre stage with two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs searching for redemption in the contest that he had his colours lowered in last year by the reopposing Fastorslow.
Willie Mullins first won the race in 2002 with Florida Pearl and, whilst he had to wait until 2013 for his next success in the contest, he won five of the nine renewals between 2013 and 2022. Mullins has however seen his pair of Gold Cup winners, Al Boum Photo and Galopin Des Champs, underperform and suffer defeat in this race following their Cheltenham exploits. Whilst his strike rate isn’t particularly impressive, as he is often mobhanded in the contest with 26 runners in the last ten renewals, the market has often got it right with his runners with each of his six winners the shortest priced from the stable.
Whilst Fastorslow became the first second-season chaser to win the race since Kemboy in 2017, such horses have in fact won 13 of the 18 renewals. There are just three in this year’s field who fit this mould and they are Appreciate It, Gentlemansgame and Journey With Me.
In-keeping with this point then and focusing on the more unexposed chasers, there has been just one ten-year-old winner in the past 19 renewals. Conflated and Corach Rambler will be looking to buck this trend and, whilst he is just a second-season chaser, Appreciate It is also a ten-year-old, having made his chase debut at eight-years-old after missing nearly all of his second season over hurdles through injury.
Course form has proven hugely significant and between the period of 2003 and 2022, 13 of the 20 winners had previously won here at Punchestown. Last year’s winner Fastorslow added a John Durkan here at the track in November, Galopin Des Champs had won the previous year’s John Durkan whilst also landing the three-mile novice hurdle at this fixture in 2021, Appreciate It was a winner at the track on chase debut and Capodanno was a winner of the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at this meeting in 2022.
This century, we have seen 11 last-time-out winners land the Punchestown Gold Cup, whilst another nine had finished second, third or fourth on their previous start and therefore looking for an in-form horse seems important. Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs is one of only two last-time-out winners to line up here, the other being Journey With Me who landed the Grade 2 Fairyhouse Chase from Appreciate It. Conflated is the only other horse in the field who can boast a top four finish, having given Jonbon a race in the Melling Chase at Aintree, form that looks even stronger now after Sandown.
Last year’s winner defied this statistic, but generally speaking, it can pay to focus on those with winning form already in the book in Grade 1 company. The previous 10 winners had been successful at the highest level and there are just three who cannot say the same in this year’s field: Gentlemansgame, Journey With Me and Corach Rambler.
In terms of number of runs during the current season, only one of the past seven winners had run more than four times earlier in the campaign and whilst it is increasingly common to see the top stars less frequently, perhaps arriving to this end of the season clash with less miles on the clock is a significant positive. Just two in here have been busier, with Conflated running six times and Capodanno with five runs under his belt.
Slightly surprisingly though, seven of the past 12 winners had run during the month of April, with five of them contesting Grade 1s at Aintree. Last years first and second are the only two not to fit this trend, both last seen at Cheltenham, whilst Conflated (Melling Chase), Gentlemansgame (Aintree Bowl) and Hewick (Liverpool Hurdle) are those who contested Grade 1s at the Grand National Meeting. 16 of the 19 winners did run at the Cheltenham Festival, and there are three here who didn’t make the trip to Prestbury Park; Hewick, Appreciate It and Journey With Me.
The past four winners were French-bred horses, including the first four home in all of the last three years. Good news again for last year’s first and second, as well as Capodanno.
Shortlist
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
CAPODANNO
After applying the outlined trends to the Punchestown Gold Cup field, there is one horse who comes out on top and that is the reigning, two-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. Perhaps the most talented chaser we have seen since Kauto Star, the eight-year-old added a second Gold Cup to his trophy cabinet in fine style, getting the job done like a consummate professional in March. Although beaten twice since last year’s triumph, he travelled extremely well through the contest in the hands of Paul Townend, jumping much better than he did in 2023, before taking command approaching two out and kicking on well. The form has already received a nice boost too with runner-up Gerri Colombe landing the Aintree Bowl on his next start. The concern is that he underperformed in this contest last year and has again had a tough campaign, putting in a massive performance to rout the field in the Savills Chase at Christmas followed by his Irish and Cheltenham Gold Cup victories. Three staying Grade 1 chases since Christmas is a serious feat, and may have taken a bit out of him, but if he is 100% there is nothing that can beat him here; the question just remains whether he is in fact 100%.
Just below on our trends table then and rounding out our shortlist is another Willie Mullins-trained runner, the JP McManus-owned CAPODANNO. A mightily impressive winner at this meeting as a novice two years ago, the eight-year-old suffered an interrupted campaign last term as he returned with a pipe opener in February before pulling up in the Grand National. He has been in much better form this season though, keeping on into third in the Savills Chase (just narrowly behind Gerri Colombe) before a strong performance on Trials Day at Cheltenham when landing the Cotswold Chase. Over a trip too short at the Cheltenham Festival, he rallied well under Mark Walsh in the Ryanair as he stayed on eye-catchingly into fourth but again just didn’t seem to see out the trip in the Grand National when last seen. A drop back to this trip, which appears his optimum, and back on his favoured quicker ground should see him to better effect and he can fill the places.
Once again, following Monetregard’s third on the opening day, we have another selection in the handicaps to accompany our trends analysis and this time we go over fences for what looks a competitive renewal of the HSS Hire Handicap Chase
6:00 Punchestown – The HSS Hire Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
As is to now be expected here at Punchestown, Willie Mullins again has a good record in this handicap chase staged over the extended 2m4f trip and has in fact landed the spoils four times since 2010. It is no surprise then that the master of Closutton is mobhanded once again in the contest and looks to improve on last year’s runners-up medal (by previous winner of the race Royal Rendezvouz).
Based strictly on jockey bookings, James Du Berlais appears to be first choice with Paul Townend getting the leg up in his search for the Irish Jump Jockeys Championship. A talented hurdler who never quite carried that ability over as a novice chaser last term (although he was third in the Grade 1 on this card last year), he has run extremely well since switched to handicaps this season. The eight-year-old finished fourth in the Paddy Power Chase over the extended three miles when not fully seeing out the trip, and backed that up with a good third behind Heart Wood (who ran well at Aintree) at the DRF over shorter; Inothewayurthinkin was back in ninth, although his effort can be taken with a pinch of a salt with his handicap mark clearly in mind that day. Although travelling well for a long while in the Plate at Cheltenham, his finishing effort petered away tamely. Again at Aintree in the Topham, despite jumping those unique fences excellently and having a two-length lead at the elbow, he failed to get the job done and was headed close home. Despite being a model of consistency, he hasn’t won since his chase debut last January and this would have to start becoming a worry, especially as his mark continues to slowly rise without getting his head in front.
Authorized Art is perhaps the most interesting of the Mullins trio though, and we know Danny Mullins has shown an aptitude to lift these apparent ‘second and third strings’ home of late, winning both the Scottish Grand National and bet365 Gold Cup in the past fortnight. Not seen since pulled-up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he arrived at Cheltenham on the back of two fine efforts at home in Ireland: runner-up in the Galway Plate with the front pair well clear of the field before a solid fourth in the Kerry National when just tiring close home over the longer trip. This trip and a return to better ground will really suit, and his form figures over fences when there is good in the description reads 21112.
The Goffer was well beaten in the Grand National, but stamina was always a worry at Aintree and, although fourth and fifth in the last two editions of the Ultima and multiple times placed over three miles and further, this trip may just suit. His last victory came over 2m5f at the DRF in 2023 from a mark of 138 (now just 5lbs higher) and he hasn’t quite finished off his races over further since, despite often travelling powerfully into contention. Rated as high as 149 for last year’s Ultima, form we know oh so well with Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in front, he could appear well-handicapped from a mark of 143 dropping back in trip here.
Of the British raiders, it is perhaps Jetoile who makes most appeal of the duo for Ryan Potter. Despite being pulled-up when last seen at Newbury, that was on heavy ground, and a return to a sounder surface will see him to better effect. He had previously finished just over eight lengths ahead of Bill Baxter when fourth on Trials Day at Cheltenham, and the latter has just a 1lb swing in the weights in his attempt to reverse the form. Ryan Potter’s nine-year-old landed the always-competitive Old Roan Chase at Aintree to begin the season, form that has worked out well through the campaign, and races here from a 1lb lower mark.
Whilst Watch House Cross showed encouraging signs of a return to form when ninth in the Plate at Cheltenham, it is Henry de Bromhead’s other runner, LET’S GO CHAMP, that is our selection here. Lightly raced for a nine-year-old, the mount of Rachel Blackmore showed smart form as a novice hurdler last term as he chased home the likes of Tactical Move (149-rated chaser) and Nick Rockett (150-rated chaser) in maiden hurdles before getting off the mark at Tipperary. On handicap debut from a mark of 125, LET’S GO CHAMP finished second in the three-mile handicap hurdle at this meeting last year despite suffering from his own fair share of interference. Although winless in three starts over fences as a novice this term, he has kept top company since switched to the bigger obstacles, chasing home American Mike and Fact To File on chase debut when never really put into the race from the rear before just emptying out behind Embassy Gardens over three miles next time. Back down in trip on handicap chase debut last time, he was unsuited by the steady gallop and was also carried left in the closing stages. This fast-paced, competitive handicap should be right up his street and he should prove better than a mark of 131. A return to quicker ground may bring about further improvement too as, although running in testing conditions on all three starts this term, he did win his sole point on good ground and, as mentioned earlier, ran well at this meeting in 2023.
bettrends Advice:
LET’S GO CHAMP E/W
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