Punchestown Festival Service 2025 DAY THREE
Hello and welcome to the bettrends Punchestown Festival Service – where we will have the trends analysis for the feature race as well as a best bet in any other race each day.
6:00 Punchestown – The Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)
Last year’s winner Teahupoo became the first Stayers’ Hurdle winner from Cheltenham to win this race this century and just the second to complete the double overall, the other being Anzum (1999). The Cheltenham contest remains a key pointer towards success here, however, with Unowhatimeanharry finishing third and eighth in the Stayers’ prior to his two wins in the race, whilst Klassical Dream finished unplaced in the race prior to his second and third wins in this contest. Therefore, don’t be afraid to look at the beaten horses from Cheltenham. Teahupoo was thwarted in the defence of his crown this year by stablemate Bob Olinger, whilst Rocky’s Diamond finished fourth and Franciscan Rock sixth. Both Crambo and Home By The Lee failed to complete at Cheltenham, the former falling at the sixth, the same flight where the latter unseated.
We have seen four multiple winners of the race and Teahupoo will return in an attempt to retain his crown from 2024, in which he won by a comfortable six-and-a-half length margin. One thing that Teahupoo hadn’t proven prior to last year was his ability to handle the track. The previous five winners of the race had all won at Punchestown prior to this race and going back even further, since 2006 no fewer than 14 of the past 18 winners had already recorded a course victory here at Punchestown. There are five course winners amongst this year’s field: Teahupoo, Asterion Forlonge, Jetara, Colonel Mustard and Franciscan Rock.
Form from Aintree is also significant with several recent winners having run at the Grand National meeting a few weeks earlier. Rhinestone Cowboy, Asian Maze and Jezki had all won the Aintree Hurdle on route to Punchestown, whilst Carlys Quest and Blazing Bailey had scored in the Liverpool Hurdle. In all, nine of the 16 winners between 2004 and 2019 had run at Aintree. Hiddenvalley Lake won the Liverpool Hurdle on Grand National Day when last seen, and he had Jetara back in third that day. Home By The Lee was pulled up in that contest, when never really appearing to travel.
To date, Paddy’s Return (1997) is the sole five-year-old winner of the race and that is something which Rocky’s Diamond will need to overcome. One Track Mind is the six-year-old only winner in the past 13 renewals, also, during which time 10 of those most recent winners were aged between seven and nine. At the other end of the scale, we have only ever seen four double-digit aged winners of this race so focusing on those slightly younger seems to be the way to go. Seven to nine would appear to be the prime age range.
Teahupoo became the first last-time-out winner in seven renewals when justifying favouritism last year. Prior to last year, only two of the past 19 winners had won more than once earlier in the season but Teahupoo – by virtue of his wins in the Hatton’s Grace and the Stayers’ Hurdle – added his name to the tally. When there isn’t an outstanding performer in the division, we often see horses beating one another in the Graded staying hurdles which again emphasises the fact that defeats earlier in the campaign aren’t the end of the world.
Winning form at Grade 1 level is once again a huge positive, with 17 of the past 22 winners having already recorded a top-level success – and this includes the past seven winners. Five of this year’s field have already scored at this level: Teahupoo, Asterion Forlonge, Hiddenvalley Lake, Crambo and Home By The Lee.
The six-year-old Holy Orders (2003) provided trainer Willie Mullins with his first win in this race some 22 years ago, before Fiveforthree (2009) handed him the first of five successive Champion Stayers Hurdle titles, with Quevega successful in the next four renewals. The evergreen Faugheen won at the age of 10 in 2018, before the treble of Klassical Dream handed Mullins with his eighth, ninth and 10th victories in the race. The trainer has won nine of the past 15 renewals and interestingly nine of his total 10 winners were the shortest-priced runner from his stable, so the apparent ‘first string’ often appears to come out on top.
Shortlist
TEAHUPOO
ASTERION FORLONGE
HIDDENVALLEY LAKE
After applying our tried and tested trends on the entire field, the one horse who comes out on top is last year’s winner TEAHUPOO. On the back of his Stayers’ Hurdle success in 2024, Gordon Elliott’s eight-year-old cantered to a comfortable victory in this race a month later. He has had just the two runs earlier in the campaign and he didn’t do a whole lot wrong in the Stayers’ Hurdle. He travelled well for a long way, perhaps the quicker ground contributing to his defeat as he was just outsprinted by the speedier Bob Olinger in the finish. He still drew eight lengths clear of stable mate The Wallpark back in third and that is probably the strongest piece of form in the race. The ground again appears on the quick side this week, which would remain a slight concern, but he is 4lbs clear on official ratings of the field.
Just below on our trends table then we have two tied for second – why not attempt the Tricast?! The first of those is Willie Mullins’ loveable rogue ASTERION FORLONGE, who will bid to give his trainer an eleventh victory in the Grade 1 contest. The formerly classy novice hurdler has filled the runner-up spot in both of the last two renewals and does appear to like it here at Punchestown – probably due to his tendency to jump to his right. He must bounce back from an unseat over fences last time, but he is a likely type to outrun his odds if putting it altogether.
Rounding out our shortlist then is another Robcour horse, who appear to hold all the aces in the Stayers’ division these days. Stablemate Bob Olinger landed the spoils at Cheltenham, whilst HIDDENVALLEY LAKE took Liverpool Hurdle honours at Aintree last time. He improved on a third in the race last year to run out an impressive winner in Merseyside, and in the process did prove he handles quicker ground. He has only ran three times this season – also finishing runner-up in the Grade 1 Long Walk – and the lightly raced eight-year-old still looks to be improving.
3:05 Punchestown – The Frontline Security Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
A fiercely competitive handicap chase over an extended two miles for us to get stuck into, and Willie Mullins has a couple of classy types who must merit serious respect. Tullyhill clearly has plenty of ability and was in fact sent off favourite for the Supreme last term following an impressive Listed victory here at Punchestown. He went on to disappoint in the Spring but returned this season with two fine efforts over fences – chasing home Irish Arkle winner Majborough at Fairyhouse on chasing bow and then collared late on at the same track by Mistergif. He was pulled up at Thurles last time when something was clearly amiss but must bounce back here as an opening mark of 146 is no easy task, despite his evident ability. Mirazur West has proved a trick customer but does have form behind Arkle runner-up Only By Night and scored nicely from the front in a Cork beginners last time. An opening mark of 135 could look lenient if he can again put it all together. Progressive five-year-old Spinning Web has improved massively for Magaret Mullins in his last three starts, last seen readily scoring in a Thurles handicap. The runner-up has boosted that form since, although this requires a good bit more down in trip from a 9lb higher mark.
Gavin Cromwell has three in here, but Midnight It Is would look to be the pick of his trio. The nine-year-old scored impressively at Navan on reappearance before catching the eye with his late progress into third in the always-competitive Dan & Joan Moore at Fairyhouse. He was last seen finishing an excellent third in the Grand Annual from a British mark of 134 and could still be well-treated from a revised mark of 137 here. Henry de Bromhead is mob-handed in the contest and runs five, with course and distance winner Jasko Des Dames appealing as the most intriguing on the bunch. The lightly-raced six-year-old scored on handicap debut from DRF handicap winner An Peann Dearg and is in fact 8lbs better off with that reopposing rival here. The gelding then scored in a novice over course and distance and was last seen keeping on into fifth in the Grand Annual. He runs off a 2lb lower Irish mark here and rates a major player under Darragh O’Keefe. Harry Cobden picks up the ride on Champagne Mahler for the trainer following his wide-margin Gowran success, but he may just find the ground a little lively here.
Anthony Honeyball has a good record when sending over horses for the Punchestown Festival and did win this race in 2021 with Sully d’Oc Aa. Gabriel’s Getaway won a Doncaster handicap back in January from good yardstick Calico and runs here off just a 2lb higher mark. Warren Greatrex send across enthusiastic front-runner Keep Running who is just 4lbs higher for an impressive all-the-way victory at Ffos Las on his penultimate start, and he could be a real danger if getting into a rhythm on the front end.
We are going to take a chance on one at a big price for our selection then, and LAW OF HER OWN was an impressive winner under an enterprising ride at Thurles last time. That form has worked out extremely well with the runner-up bolting up in a Premier Handicap at Cheltenham next time from a mark of 125, and Peter Fahey’s eight-year-old arrives here on a potentially lenient mark of 125. She has experience in big-field handicaps, winning at the Galway Festival over hurdles back in 2023 from a mark of 116 when with Dan Skelton, and she can prove well-treated here if in the same form as last time.
bettrends Advice:
LAW OF HER OWN (E/W)
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