Punchestown Festival Service 2025 DAY FOUR
Hello and welcome to the bettrends Punchestown Festival Service – where we will have the trends analysis for the feature race as well as a best bet in any other race each day.
6:40 Punchestown – The Boodles Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
In contrast to the Punchestown Gold Cup and the Champion Stayers Hurdle, horses who have won the equivalent race at the Cheltenham Festival boast a fine record in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, with State Man the seventh successive Champion Hurdle winner to have contested this race to have won. Golden Ace was a shock winner of the Champion Hurdle in March following falls from Constitution Hill and State Man – not to take away from Jeremy Scott’s mare – and looks to back that up here. No fewer than 11 of the past 13 winners had contested the race, with the likes of State Man, Hurricane Fly and Punjabi beaten at Cheltenham before winning here. As mentioned earlier, the other two runners from the Champion Hurdle lining up here fell at Cheltenham – with State Man looking a certain winner before coming down at the last.
State Man became just the third multiple-winner of the race when successful last year and if lining up, will bid to become just the second horse to win the race more than twice, the other being the brilliant Hurricane Fly (2010-2013). He is somewhat of a course specialist and his Punchestown record stood at 3-3 ahead of last year’s race. 19 of the 25 winners of this race had already recorded a course win here at Punchestown, so it really is a significant statistic. Kargese is the only other course winner set to line up, winning the Grade 1 Champion Four Year Old Hurdle on this card 12 months ago.
Successful in 2002 with the novice Davenport Milenium, Willie Mullins has now won this race on 10 occasions, with the other nine victories coming since 2010, meaning that the trainer has now won nine of the past 14 renewals. Mullins does dominate the Grade 1 events at this meeting, and he has State Man and Kargese representing him here.
Given that class often rises to the top in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, it isn’t surprising that 11 of the past 13 winners were rated at least 164, with four of them rated in the low 170s. Nine of those recent winners were clear top-rated and Constitution Hill leads the way with his lofty 175 rating, whilst State Man is other only other horse rated in the 160s – rated 168. Additionally, only two of the 25 winners had failed to win a Grade 1 earlier in their careers, those being the pairing of Silent Oscar and Wicklow Brave. Bottler’secret and Break My Soul are in the two in line-up without such a victory on their resume.
Going back to 2011, when Hurricane Fly won the second of his four Punchestown Champion Hurdles, no fewer than nine of the past 13 winners had contested the Irish Champion Hurdle, with eight of those successful. The past four winners of this race had all won the Leopardstown Grade 1 on their penultimate start and the 2025 renewal again went the way of State Man, who has won the contest for the past three years.
The years certainly do catch up with horses in this division and there has never been a double-digit aged winner of this race. In fact, when winning his fourth Punchestown Champion Hurdle, Hurricane Fly is the one and only nine-year-old winner of the race, so focus on those aged eight and younger. All six in this year’s field fit the bill here.
There haven’t been any mares in the field in the past two renewals, but three have won since 2016 and all from just seven runners. As with all Grade 1 races, top-class mares have to be given utmost respect when in receipt of the sex-allowance. This year’s field features three: Golden Ace, Break My Soul and Kargese.
Nine of the past 11 winners arrived at Punchestown on the back of having won or finished runner-up last time, with Wicklow Brave – well-beaten in the Champion Hurdle – the only outlier. Surprisingly, only Kargese and Golden Ace fit into this category. Just one horse has won this race on the back of a fall – that being Brave Inca (2005) who had fallen in the Aintree Hurdle– and this is something which both State Man and Constitution Hill will need overcome. Only two of the 25 winners had failed to run three times earlier in the season, and just Kargese falls down here.
Shortlist
STATE MAN
GOLDEN ACE
After applying our tried and tested trends, it may come as a surprise that market leader Constitution Hill does not feature on our shortlist – the star hurdler having his first start across the Irish Sea on the back of two falls at Cheltenham and Aintree. The leader on the trends is in fact STATE MAN, who has won the last two renewals of this race rather comfortably and has won five of his six starts at the track. After disappointing on his first two starts of the season, he capitalised on a fall from Lossiemouth to once again take the Irish Champion Hurdle at the DRF – albeit too far from home to split the pair. Tried in first-time cheekpieces in the Champion Hurdle, he travelled exceptionally well through the race, kicking clear of the bend and looking a certain winner before crashing down at the final flight. Cheekpieces are retained and, if none the worse for that fall, Nicky Henderson’s star will have to be on the top of his game to knock off State Man on his home turf.
Joining the shortlist then, next on our trends table is Champion Hurdle winner GOLDEN ACE. Whilst it is inarguable that Jeremy Scott’s mare took advantage of the big two falling in the race, you have to stand up to win and jumping is the name of the game. She has thrived since dropping back to her optimum trip of two miles and she did stay on extremely strongly up the hill, putting nine lengths between herself and the remainder of the field. She will thrive on the ground and is once again a danger receiving 7lbs from her male rivals.
5:25 Punchestown – The QuinnBet Novice Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Despite not being a Grade 1, this is a race that Willie Mullins has absolutely dominated in recent years. The trainer has farmed the race with classy novices on handy marks, winning ten of the last 16 renewals and not having the winner last year snapped a five-year winning streak for Closutton. Mullins has five in here to wrestle back the prize.
Zenta – a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile – shed her maiden tag over fences in a good beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse in February and was well supported on handicap debut at that same track last time. She was poorly positioned that day before staying on into third and arrives off the same mark looking to make amends – this time with Aidan Kelly taking off a handy 5lbs in the saddle. Lisnagar Fortune flashed some smart form in maiden hurdles last term but has yet to really kick on over fences, his runs have been ridden with mistakes. Sir Argus was third on this card in a handicap hurdle two years ago and arrives here off a 2lb higher chase mark, having missed plenty of time and unseating at Naas latest. Western Diego was disappointing in the Scotty Brand at Ayr and that then leaves us with our selection from the yard.
BLIZZARD OF OZ has yet to score over fences but has posted three fine efforts in defeat – all of which have had the form franked. The seven-year-old chased home Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson on debut at Naas – beaten less than two lengths – before again finishing third to Irish Grand National-placed Quai De Bourbon at Gowran. Back at that track on his last start, he again finished third in a race that has worked out extremely well; the second filling that same spot in the bet365 Gold Cup from a mark of 142 and the fourth finishing third in the Novices’ Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival from a mark of 140 before a close second in the Silver Trophy from the same mark. He makes his handicap debut here under JJ Slevin from a potentially lenient mark of 141 – he has plenty of scope for improvement and can prove much better than his opening mark over fences.
Henry de Bromhead’s Native Speaker was impressive when seeing off National Hunt Chase third Will Do at Fairyhouse in November before finishing a close third in a good novice chase at the same track in December. He has seemingly been kept for this, and an opening mark of 130 appears on the lenient side. Stablemate Theatre Native bolted up in a Premier Handicap at Cheltenham last time and has form behind Arkle runner-up Only By Night – but this will prove tougher from an 8lb higher Irish mark back against geldings. Mark Walsh takes the ride aboard Nara for the stable, who finished third in a handicap hurdle on this card last year and landed a Grade 2 at Thurles last time. She too has form behind Only By Night, beaten just under four lengths by the Arkle runner-up in a Cork Grade 2 and she would make most appeal of de Bromhead’s trio from a mark of 136.
Common Practice did bet365 Gold Cup third High Class Hero for speed when winning a Grade 3 last time on the back of a break. He is proving steadily progressive and is interesting from an opening mark of 141 for Joseph O’Brien, but the yard does seem to be struggling for form at present. The Gordon Elliott yard also seem out of sorts right now, and you would think Cleatus Poolaw needs a sterner stamina test than this whilst What’s Up Darling is consistent but would be more exposed than some of these. Moon D’Orange has performed well in top handicaps at Cheltenham this season and has been given a chance here by the Irish handicapper from a reduced mark, whilst No Flies On Him threatened as the type to be laid out for a big handicap but it just hasn’t happened for him the last twice and he has become frustrating.
bettrends Advice:
BLIZZARD OF OZ (E/W)
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